Liu Shengjun: I prophesied bitcoin in February

One Goodbye, bitcoin

Bitcoin collapse is one of the biggest events of the 2018 global financial field. Bitcoin currency from the beginning of the rush hour to $25000 about $3500 now fall, is still not the end.

True grid fund founder, co-founder of New Oriental Xu Xiaoping suspected withdraw money ring, the micro-blog has failed to retrieve the blockchain related content. and At the beginning of Xu Xiaoping once described as a chain block A Shun Chang, great technology revolution nizhizhe Wu. .

The legendary” Bitcoin’s richest man “Li Xiaolai also disappeared in the circle of money. Two

Even the recent tragic death” Genius physicist “Zhang Sheng first also failed to escape the charm of virtual currency.

In February 22, 2018, Zhang Sheng first joined the United States figure. After a month ago, Mito announced the blockchain project their own white paper. Suddenly, the beauties of the image from a female audience, transformed into a block chain technology company.

BEC (beauty chain currency) At the peak of the market value has reached Three hundred and fifty Billion dollars (contract 220 billion 800 million yuan), compared to the MiTo company of HK $44 billion (contract 35 billion 500 million yuan) the market value of 5 times higher than the whole. But to 2 month 26 days, the price of $0.61, compared to the highest point has dropped to 87.8%. 4 22 April rumors in the MiTo token, BEC intelligent beauty chain contract has been exposed security vulnerabilities, 60 billion BEC was instantly turn away, causing the price of BEC flash crash. According to the lowest price 0.137 yuan calculated flash down trading, fell nearly 94%. at present BEC The price only Zero point zero six six one Dollars, Basic zero .

I can not help but think of another Great Physics Scientist Newton .

At the beginning of 1720, the British South Sea Company stock soared nearly 10 times, to the summer peak after began to fall, Newton’s 4 month May clearance, net profit of 7 thousand pounds. Then the stock market skyrocketing again, could not resist the temptation for him, again in July to enter international market. However, after 1 weeks, the stock began to fall, then a thousand miles, Newton did not escape, a total loss of 20 thousand pounds, equivalent to the current 58 million yuan.

Newton wise, in the paid tuition, realized the saying:

I can calculate the running track of celestial bodies, but can not calculate the madness of human nature.

From the number of financial physicist turned Emanuel Deman gave away the secret:

When you study physics, your opponent is God; when you study finance, your opponent is God made man. Three

Bitcoin bubble why rapid trend collapse? Two thousand and eighteen year Two In an interview at the beginning of the month I will give a clear explanation and prediction . Earlier, in August 2017″ Bitcoin: with high-tech vest Utopia “Predicted bitcoin final.

Interview bitcoin accepted the following February 2018 Liu Shengjun.

One day in early February, the reporter Liu Shengjun and micro finance founder Liu Shengjun, meet in the building of financial information center of Huangpu River China 9 floor. Cafes facing Pujiang, Shanghai international financial center style.

However, for the recent hot topics in the financial field: bitcoin investment, Dr. Liu Shengjun held not optimistic view. His attitude clearly told reporters: bitcoin currency substitution, just some unrealistic imagination.

Bitcoin original design concept

Bitcoin early heart is to challenge the sovereign currency

Now is the currency of credit money, since 1972, Nixon announced that the currency and gold decoupling, credit general devaluation is very fast. If there is no money by investing in stocks, commodities, real estate assets, it is difficult to get guarantee.

Currency devaluation, inflation is behind the super currency, so, as a new currency is not over, then cut off the possibility of devaluation, this concept to attract people to the pursuit of bitcoin.

A deadly misunderstanding of bitcoin

Technically, the total quantity control, ensure the scarcity of money, but it sounds logical. In terms of bitcoin has two fatal misunderstanding :

1. of the modern countries, currency is a symbol of national sovereignty

Compared with another kind of national sovereignty on behalf of the army, people feel more obvious for money. Not only relates to the mainstream monetary fiscal policy and monetary policy, but also affect the government and public life. If a new currency to replace sovereign currency, but in reality is to challenge the government authority, in any country can be achieved. Utopia is like the idea of a new currency to replace the mainstream currency is a direct challenge to national sovereignty, is a dangerous utopia.

The value of bitcoin is the only currency in circulation may be, but when the government or people realize that this is a fallacy, the value of bitcoins will collapse overnight. Once the government realized that must not be allowed to have the function of money tokens.

The most powerful government China, sovereignty is the most sensitive, so Chinese became the first garrotte bitcoin sovereign state.

2. even if rare, but not scarce goods have value

BS International Bank president to three words to describe bitcoin: Speculative and Ponzi scheme, environmental disaster (mining) . People buy bitcoin, because all people think it is scarce.

Two understanding trap:

A. bitcoin is scarce? No Is. Bitcoin bitcoin split out of cash, it can continue to split down, scarcity is a false proposition, 21 million is just an illusion.

If the B. is scarce, it does not mean they must have value. Gold has a value of reason, cannot do without the use of value, including decoration, industrial and other specific purposes.

The amount of gold is stable, gold mining is difficult, scarcity is obvious, for playing the role of money. But bitcoin natural is not possible, bitcoin’s value cannot be estimated and not constant, is the market speculation . If the government does not allow bitcoin as a medium of exchange, it no longer has any value.

Bitcoin for investment products?

Not always。 Any investment goods must have intrinsic value, such as stocks, real estate. The reason is because people pursue the public mind fantasy it one day to become a real currency, but this assumption is not established.

Why is all bitcoin virtual currency in the fire? Bitcoin born itself as currency, but technically, bitcoin and Ethernet square, Wright currency tokens and does not have what difference.

Bitcoin as a form of currency, exists in the black market. Will bitcoin as a currency that is extremely dangerous, slovenly.

Block chain and bitcoin should be treated differently

Block chain is new technology, compared with the traditional Internet has a strong advantage, even the central bank has been studied. But now, block chain technology has not found a good business model, currently more stays at the conceptual level, has not found a good application platform. Block chain has a fatal weakness, particularly slow, essentially unsuitable for high-speed trading, low efficiency.

Creating a new business model, we must fully consider the cost.

“Go The center “is too abstract

We said bitcoin is one of the most successful parent, but it does not really solve the problem what. Bitcoin will “to the center” only specific to this one: the traditional concept of money money is not good enough, so want to reform the currency, but now it seems this way is not feasible.

If bitcoin can find a new direction, it might have a new vitality, but in the currency in this direction has a dead end.

Any of the things that create value is the most important. Technology and money to block chain technology, which can reduce the cost, create new profit space, have greater market potential. But now speculation bitcoin is largely not based on this logic, but the irrational and unrealistic.

At first it was thought that bitcoin has evolved into the currency, later completely converted into a speculative bubble.

Speculators want to become the second bitcoin rich, but the result is often that they are finally paying .

How to identify high-quality block chain project and business model?

Early investment block chain, through mining the treasure, now all the block chain project incentive mechanism exists in the token, the returns of investors bound in itself issued currency appreciation.

As a token of incentive mechanism is no problem, but to identify the business model of eye:

First, the company should have a clear structure, business model, service content, object, if these basic points are unable to confirm that to guard against fraud.

Second, due to extreme heat block chain, and the field has certain technical, ordinary investors may be difficult to really understand the rationale, also easy to be misled.

No matter how good the model cannot be separated from business talk about technology Behind bitcoin blockchain is technology, and the Internet are similar, not even the best from the commercial mode about technology.

For example, AI (Artificial Intelligence), AI can solve the problem of what to consider, is a smart investment? Create a good algorithm? Or the other way? If only the abstract about AI is of no significance, the blockchain as vice versa.

The technical rules VS rules

The technology must be considered by the people to perform and verify. Some of the problems, and can not solve the chain block. Block chain only transaction documents, technology can effectively achieve the data can not be tampered with, but the regulation is still the problem.

Only by the block chain is difficult to achieve absolute security, you can confirm the transaction, but can not completely eliminate the risk of misappropriation of funds. The application block chain is a new round of the game, you may solve 5% problems at the same time, increase the number of cost.

On 2018, the block chain technology to determine the trend? Block chain technology is in the trough, is not really mature, the market needs more time to explore.

But for bitcoin, 2018 is the disillusionment of the year, bitcoin has basically come to an end. As governments have made, investors have gradually realized that change the attitude of the government and the bubble burst may at any time.

Chain and currency balance

1. if a pure company uses the money, so the government will not refuse, now strictly limited, because the market quanqian spread mode.

2. dollars is just a technical innovation, the company may in other forms instead of “coins” exist.

For, for a small platform issued a “currency”, itself would not be given more significance, that from the viewpoint of the government may have to run. But in the short term, the government China resolute attitude, the policy will not have too big change.

Whether the block chain project is reliable?

There is not heard of block chain project mature, even abroad have not heard, we are still in the exploration.

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