BTC fourth price upward cycle or open around May 2019, mainstream institutions admission, ETF or become the fourth round of price cycle driving force.
BTC has three price cycle. “This time is different” is a medicine the most expensive investment, not because the pass card represented by BTC has some unique properties that BTC can only rise, when the power cycle appears, the original is expected to create a different historical asset prices are collapsing. There are three rules of BTC price cycle:
1) BTC price cycle and half cycle are closely related. Complete BTC price cycle lasts about four years, every half a year before the price upward cycle open at the end of November 2012, the first BTC production by half, while in November 2011 BTC prices have bottomed out. In July 2016 second BTC production by half in August 2015, BTC has bottomed out. BTC half blew every price upward cycle to attack the horn, prices began to accelerate the rise.
2) BTC price volatility as the market value increased. BTC (circulation) changes in the market value scale mainly by the price fluctuations led BTC prices rising trend driven by market value scale trend of increase, the price volatility of BTC also decreased gradually, the historical process and other asset classes similar to the cycle of prices for the first time, BTC prices rose up to 10636 times, up down 93.76%; second price cycle, BTC prices rose up to 623 times, up to down 83.93%; third price cycle, BTC rose up to 98.57 times, the largest decline has not been confirmed.
3) BTC leading to continuous innovation and development is the mainstream more identity. From BTC to pass through from the copycat copycat card, card to Crowdsale, every time the price cycle has innovation and application of the iconic. First, the birth and gradually applied BTC is the landmark event; second, with the 2013 BTC rise again, copycat passes boom struck, a lot of copycat passes; the third time, Crowdsale began a global epidemic, many sites began to provide Crowdsale message and discussion community, since in 2017, Crowdsale has occupied the dominant position of the block chain investment, far more than the VCs and enterprise investment. With the development of digital technology, the block chain passes the evolution, practitioners of cognitive improvement, government regulation of the evolution of BTC leading to continuous innovation and evolution are more mainstream identity.
The third price cycle could be completed around May 2019, then open the fourth round of price increases of BTC cycle, the maximum fourth times the price upward cycle will be smaller. More funds support BTC more and more market value, through digital certificate to embrace regulation to absorb more funds in, ETF will be a feasible solution, coming from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace regulation.
Risk warning: ETF progress is less than expected, the rapid quantum computer technology
1 the first round of price cycle
2 of the second round of price cycle
3 third price cycle
The three rules of BTC 4 price cycle
4.1 price cycle and half cycle is closely related to BTC
4.2 BTC price volatility as the market value increased
4.3 BTC leading to continuous innovation and evolution is more mainstream identity
5 BTC is a new journey or in the 2019 year 5 month open
History will not repeat, but always surprisingly similar. – Mark Twin
“This time is different” is a medicine the most expensive investment, not because the pass card represented by BTC has some unique characteristics that BTC can only rise, when the power cycle appears, the original is expected to create a different historical asset prices are collapsing, either 2007 or 2015 A shares, there are other “bubble” is the history of mankind so. Only in the case of the BTC, its price also experienced three cycles.
In addition, when asset prices are falling, weak rebound to dark moment, cycle power will also appear, as long as there is a value supporting asset, its price will start from the bottom rebound, there will always be a chance, but the premise is you holding potential assets. In the face of darkness before the dawn, the more you fear is confused, the more you will Huangbuzelu, at this time, you need a firm belief of value investment, “you greedy when others fear, fear you when others are greedy, but not others fear when you fear more than others, you more than others when others are greedy greedy.
Specifically, in the bottom area prices down cycle, to gradually reverse investment, allocation of undervalued assets, at the top of the price upward cycle area will gradually reverse investment, sell overvalued assets in other time periods, the flow is the best choice.
1 in the first round of price cycle
BTC the first round of price cycle time span from March 2010 to November 2011, lasted 610 days, is the history of the BTC three price cycle, the largest increase at a time.
From March 2010 to June 2011, in the first round of price cycle upward price stage, lasted 447 days, the price in the upward cycle, the starting price is $0.003 / BTC, the highest price is $31.91 /, the rate of increase of 10636 times. From June 2011 to November 2011, the price is the downward phase of the first round of price cycle, lasting 163 days, the price in the downward cycle, the starting price is $31.91 / BTC, the lowest price is $1.99 / piece, a decrease of 94%.
In May 22, 2010, turnover of the famous BTC pizza, Florida’s Jacksonville Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas with 10 thousand pieces of BTC, every BTC the price is less than $0.01.
In the first round of upward price cycle, and there is no positive or negative factors are very clear BTC caused huge fluctuations, fluctuations in the price of BTC in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC “11 2011 bubble” burst, the prices continued to rise, the main reason is the rising price of BTC small base, with the BTC awareness gradually increased, rising demand, prices rise. As of June 2011, Wikileaks and some organizations began to accept donations of BTC.
2 of the second round of price cycle
BTC second round of price cycle time span from November 2011 to August 2015, lasted 1377 days, this time, BTC at the first time more than gold.
January 11 11 2011 and 2013, is the stage of the price upward cycle in the next round of price cycle, lasted for 743 days, the price in the upward cycle, the starting price is $1.99 / BTC, the highest price is $1242 / pieces, rises up to 623 times. January 8 11 2013 and 2015, is the stage of the price down cycle round 2 price cycle, lasting 634 days, the price in the downward cycle, the starting price is $1242 / BTC, the lowest price is $199.57 / gold, a decrease of 84%.
Second times the price cycle, the application scope of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept the BTC; in October 2013, the world’s first BTC ATM deployed in a cafe in Vancouver, customers can buy and sell BTC by the University of Nicosia; in November 2013, BTC announced that it will accept to pay tuition fees, the University’s chief financial affairs said it “tomorrow’s gold”; in addition to the underground economy and the grey economy began to accept BTC, BTC is more and more into daily life.
The success of BTC with hot copycat passes. The first kind of copycat passes LTC (Litecoin) created in October 2011, is now at the end of the first round of price cycle downward price. In 2011, SwiftCoin Namecoin was born in 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin copycat passes come out, but this is still in the BTC from the bottom up shocks of the stage, the heat of the market is not high. With the 2013 BTC rise again, copycat passes boom struck, a lot of copycat passes, according to CoinMarketCap data, by the end of 2013 passes over 66, and less than 10 at the beginning of year.
The BTC property is widely recognized by hedge. BTC as many countries in crisis, the crisis China home residents flock to BTC, hope that through the BTC value, the European debt crisis, this phenomenon occurred many times. As early as 2013, the government of Cyprus in order to get assistance payments, tax on deposits and the implementation of strict capital controls, in order to prevent shrinkage property, people in Cyprus fall over each other to bank runs, the domestic currency replaced BTC, BTC price has soared from $more than 30 to $265.
Due to the lack of supervision, BTC often by negative shocks, there is confidence in the market crash risk. 2013 years 10 months, FBI seized about 26000 BTC from the Silk Road site, leading to BTC price flash collapse to $110. 2013 years 12 months 5 days, the people’s Bank of Chinese ban Chinese financial institutions using BTC, after the news came out, the price of BTC decreased. 2 2014, the biggest exchange BTC Mt.Gox said its customers 85 million BTC stolen, worth nearly $5 billion, BTC prices fell by nearly half, from US $439 $867.
Copycat passes the emergence of a large number of blood loss caused by market. From the beginning of 2014, the number of copycat passes to the explosive growth in August 2015 reached number 556, caused by the diversion of funds, market expansion. In May 1, 2013, the BTC value in all passes the market accounted for 94.29%, other passes in the preceding 10 Datong evidence from the market value accounted for about 1%, to August 25, 2015, BTC accounted for about 83% of the other passes accounted for 4%, the shift in the trend obviously.
Pass card to magic, but also a kind of asset, the mean reversion is the basic knowledge of investment, the price to the gravity of the return value, the risk is to rise up and fall out of the value. This round of price upward cycle, BTC prices up to 623 times, is not big, the price is too high, when the potential rewards are insufficient, falling to new investors attractive old investors will find out, earn a higher return, once the trend of investors force begins to fail, the trend will be reversed.
3 third price cycle
BTC the third price cycle is not fully completed, the current price in the downward phase of this round of price cycle. The cycle of rising prices from August 2015 to December 2017 opened a total of 845 days, starting price of the price upward cycle BTC is $199.57, the highest price is close to $20 thousand /, the rate of increase of 99 times. From the beginning of December 2017, the cycle in the price downward opening, so far, the minimum fell to $3191.30, down 84%.
The rapid expansion of the BTC network, BTC is getting more and more in the legislation and the traditional financial companies in identity. Research shows that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but driven by legitimate enterprises. The third round of price cycle, in more and more countries, people’s Daily has often contact, selection, trading and use of BTC. In January 2016, bitcoin is the first force to 1exahash/S; in March 2016, the Japanese cabinet admitted that BTC has a similar function of real money; in 2017, Norway’s largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC account; in December 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched the BTC futures BTC to mainstream investment as an important step forward in October 2018, Fidelity Investments; Fidelity Digital Asset launched an independent subsidiary of Services, providing digital assets for institutional services; December 2018, Intercontinental Exchange launched through Bakkt encryption card exchange completed the first round of financing; in February 2019, NASDAQ officially launched Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX) two index, U.S. pension fund investment fund encryption mainstream institutions. To accelerate the layout, infrastructure and gradually improve.
BTC become a risk asset. The current global low interest rates, low interest rate and low volatility of the “three low” environment, investors seek higher returns, leads to excessive financial risk-taking behavior and complacency, the risk of investors tend to promote, to accept the high degree of leverage and high risk products increase, arbitrage trading prevailed, liquidity mismatch seriously, the overall market weakness. From the results, the price index of BTC and VIX (CBOE volatility index) correlation is more and more high. The lower VIX index shows that investors expect less volatility, while higher VIX showed higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index shows that investors in S&P 500 optimistic, while higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook, when market volatility declined, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when volatility rises, investors to sell risky assets.
Reduce the time to market panic in the risk preference, risk assets are sold off. BTC to hedge assets property, as risk assets, from the beginning of 2017 years 12 months, with the decline of VIX index, BTC prices, BTC price and VIX index of negative correlation. 2018 years earlier, the VIX index soared BTC rapid decline. 2018 10, global market risk aversion, VIX index upward, BTC prices fell sharply.
Crowdsale has become the main way of financing in the field of chain block. Crowdsale was born in the second round of price cycle, July 2013 Mastercoin was the first global Crowdsale. In 2014 Ethereum also raise funds through Crowdsale, the ETH price is less than $0.22 / piece. 2016 years after the period of price for a third time, Crowdsale began a global epidemic, many sites began to provide Crowdsale message and discussion community. From a global perspective, since 2017 Crowdsale has occupied the dominant position, block chain investment, far more than VCs and the investment of enterprises and 2017 through the Crowdsale to raise funds 74 billion dollars, 2018 years only the first half by Crowdsale raised 120 billion dollars.
The emergence of Crypto Fund. With the upsurge of Crowdsale, is the new Crypto Fund Crypto Fund, the number of 2017 new nearly 200, far more than the year before the new Crypto fund plus the total, fully illustrated with the pass card prices, capital chain in the field of high enthusiasm for the block.
Block chain 2 Crowdsale tide rise, ETH rose nearly a million times. In the BTC (General Certificate) of the third round of price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH, after 2016 Crowdsale Ethereum issue passes mostly based on block represents 2 times the rise of the ETH chain, Crowdsale promoted the prosperity of the rising ETH, January 13, 2018, ETH prices rose to the highest point of $1432.88 / gold, compared with its initial price rose 6512 times.
A significant positive correlation between the ETH price and Crowdsale financing scale growth. In 2015 Crowdsale financing scale growth rate fell 69.23%, according to the available data, ETH prices fell 66.30% in 2016; Crowdsale financing scale growth rate increased by 2737.5%, the year ETH rose 753.74%; 2017 Crowdsale financing scale growth rate increased by 3159.91%, the year ETH rose 8809.91%.
The chain performance improvement scheme have made significant progress in network lightning. With the popularity of the blockchain, congestion and other public BTC chain gradually, performance has become one of the bottleneck of industry chain block. In 2018, the chain performance improvement scheme emerged, according to different block chain logic structure was improved, including the improvement of consensus mechanism, such as the chain expansion program, channel status, side chain and chain calculation of chain expansion program, and by optimizing the block chain according to the bottom layer protocol can be extended zeroth block lifting chain the expansion program of layer. BTC main line network lightning number and capacity since the channel continues to grow, as of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, the channel number reached 35464.
Note: Unique refers to the first direct connection channel channel, Duplicate channel is refers to between the connected nodes channel.
Pass card specification advance. In January 22, 2018, South Korea asked all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, to prohibit anonymous transactions BTC; the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibits the promotion of Crowdsale; the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate a large number of Crowdsale projects, issued a ban on some of the Crowdsale project. No matter how the government passes the attitude, were committed to passes into the regulatory framework of legal compliance.
Crowdsale bubble burst, no magic magic story. According to incomplete statistics, 2017 global completed a total of 871 Crowdsale, the project involves distributed class Facebook, twitter, Amazon, the next generation of the chain (3.0 chain block)…… So, these projects raise a lot of money, but the actual landing. Promotion project dissipation of a large amount of money, but the actual progress of the development of far less than expected, causing the market expected fall and capital from mainstream passes the shunt, superimposed more and more negative news impact, technical requirements and market adjustment of mood swings, the market began to fall into a negative cycle.
In 2018 the blockchain venture capital investment in the high-speed growth, that application of venture capital is still optimistic about the blockchain and future prospects. According to Coindesk data, in 2018 the field of venture capital chain against the decline in 2017, an increase of 257%, the total amount of $3 billion 100 million.
BTC peaked early. According to the time point of view, in the third round of price cycle, the first peak is BTC, reaching US $19870.62 / 2017 in 12 month gold that peaked; the peak ETH later than BTC, 1 in 2018 years peaked; EOS until 4 months before the peak. BTC is an important reason to see the top of the advance, the amount of money to support the market value of the largest size to BTC, when the market reception is not enough, the first reaction is the inevitable price of BTC.
The three rules of 4BTC price cycle
There are obvious regularity of BTC price cycle, some constant factors determine the price volatility of BTC.
4.1 price cycle and half cycle is closely related to BTC
Complete BTC price cycle lasts about four years. The first round of price cycle, because the BTC trading price of the availability of reason, measure time span is not reliable. The second round of price cycle lasted 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015 about four years.
The price of BTC uplink cycle and half cycle are closely related, each half a year before the opening price upward cycle. 11 month 2012 years at the bottom of the BTC the first time that the number of BTC production by half, each block produced by 25, and in the 11 month BTC 2011 years prices have bottomed out, BTC half a year in the two price after opening up cycle. In July 2016 second BTC production by half, the number of BTC blocks each for 12.5, and in August 2015 BTC has bottomed out, BTC production again a year at about third times the price after opening up cycle.
BTC half blew every price upward cycle to attack the horn, prices began to accelerate the rise. Although not BTC half price upward cycle, but the yield of BTC by dramatically reducing the BTC supply growth accelerated, rising prices and BTC prices upward cycle process. January 11 11 2011 and 2012, in the BTC production by half a year ago, BTC up to 6.74 times, January 11 11 2012 to 2013 a year, BTC up to 99.57 times. In a third price upward cycle, in the production, about 11 months, BTC up to 2.87 times; in half after about 11 months, BTC up to 29.73 times.
4.2 BTC price volatility as the market value increased
BTC (circulation) changes in the market value scale mainly by the price fluctuations led, and BTC have dug the total change little relationship. According to CMC data, in April 28, 2013, BTC has been dug about 11 million 180 thousand pieces, 21 million pieces of BTC more than 53% of the total, half mechanism of BTC also accelerated the decline in the growth rate of the total marginal BTC, compared with BTC have been digging stock, the supply of new BTC is very small. In addition, volatility of prices far beyond BTC BTC has dug the total, BTC market value scale with its price fluctuation.
The value of BTC increased market size trend. Because of the rising price trend of BTC, BTC has also increased the number of one-way digging, the size of the market value of BTC from the long period of the trend of the increase. According to CMC data, 2013 year 4 month 28 day, BTC of the circulation market value of only 15 billion dollars, to a third price upward cycle highs, the market value rose to 3261 billion, the current market value of 1138 million, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC decreased gradually. With the trend of BTC market value to increase the size of the BTC, the market becomes more mature, accepted more and more, more and more professional institutions involved, compliance operation has gradually become the mainstream, BTC price volatility decreases, the historical process and other asset classes similar to the same repeat things again and again. The price of the first cycle, BTC prices rose up to 10636 times, up to down 93.76%; second price cycle, BTC prices rose up to 623 times, up to down 83.93%; third price cycle, BTC rose up to 98.57 times, the largest decline has not been confirmed.
4.3 BTC leading to continuous innovation and development is the mainstream more identity
From BTC to pass through from the copycat copycat card, card to Crowdsale, every time the price cycle block chain are iconic and innovative application. The price of the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC is a sign of the event; second price cycle, with the 2013 BTC rise again, copycat passes boom struck, a lot of copycat passes; third price cycle, Crowdsale began a global epidemic, many sites began to provide Crowdsale. The news and discussion community, since 2017, has occupied the dominant position of Crowdsale block chain investment, far more than the VCs and enterprise investment.
Nakamoto So created the intent of BTC is to establish a secure, verifiable and can not be tampered with in the form of electronic transfer more efficient means of transaction. In the early stage of bitcoin and block chain development, this has driven most of the BTC application and the blockchain. But with the development of digital technology, the block chain passes the evolution, practitioners of cognitive improvement, government regulation, evolving changes BTC leading and obtain more mainstream identity.
More and more countries have realized that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many areas, the government will gradually passes into the digital supervision, mainstream institutions increasingly recognized BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched the BTC futures BTC to mainstream investment as an important step forward, improve the BTC of the traditional financial institutions to reach capacity. In March 2017, Cameron Winkelvoss and the Taylor Winkelvoss brothers is trying to apply to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission BTC ETF (ETF), while in September 22, 2018, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission declined to 9 BTC for ETF, but the long run, BTC ETF approved is a high probability event. With the continuous improvement of infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market mechanism, the pace of admission have accelerated signs. Since the end of 2018, mainstream institutions layout encryption assets related news.
5BTC’s new journey or opened in May 2019
BTC fourth price upward cycle or open around May 2019, mainstream institutions admission, ETF or BTC become the core of the fourth round of price trend cycle.
From the supply perspective, the third BTC about half begins around May 21, 2020, the price of BTC uplink cycle and half cycle is closely related to every half a year or so before prices open up cycle, from this perspective, BTC price upward cycle or around May 2019 open.
From the time point of view, the complete BTC price cycle lasts about four years, since August 2015 opening of the third round of price cycle, largely completed in August 2019 or so, since the beginning of the fourth round of price cycle BTC. Taking into account the second round of price cycle data is more reliable, with only second rounds of price cycle data calculate standard, a complete price cycle for 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, while the third price cycle could be completed around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycle, the downward phase of the current round of price cycle about rate has been more than half, further downside is limited. The first two rounds of price in the downward phase of cycle duration was less than the duration of the uplink uplink, the third stage price cycle duration has been confirmed (845 days), and the downward phase duration compared to the ascending stage also has more than half (450 days). The previous two rounds of price cycle, prices fell sharply early in the downward phase occurred during the second half of the downward phase, BTC price fluctuations have been significantly reduced, the downward phase of the first two rounds of price cycle when more than half of the price decline of BTC reached 61% and 74%, the largest decline in the corresponding BTC were 94% and 84%. The current round of price cycle, the largest decline has reached 84%, so the current situation even if prices further down, but the downside is relatively limited.
Note: the downward phase of the third round of price cycle and the total duration of data as of March 12, 2019.
From the price point of view, the current cycle BTC prices continue to rise in the limited space down, maximum BTC fourth times the price upward cycle will be smaller. The price of the first cycle, BTC prices rose up to 10636 times, up down 93.76%; the two time period of price, BTC price rose up to 623 times, up down 83.93%; the period of price three times, BTC rose up to 98.57 times, the largest decline has not been confirmed. In the 2 month 6 days to 2018 years, the minimum fell to $3191.30 / BTC, or 84.07%, has reached the two round of price decline cycle level, from the price adjustment, the price has been relatively limited downside BTC. The maximum increase of BTC fourth times the price upward cycle will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after adjustment for a year, BTC prices fell more fully, the risk has been gradually released, investors risk appetite has created favorable conditions for BTC to stabilize prices upward. The beginning of the end of December 2018, the VIX index has been down to below 15, the risk preferences of investors gradually rise, creating favorable conditions for BTC to stabilize prices upward.
Finally, from the perspective of capital, mainstream institutions to accelerate approach, a number of positive signals released. With the continuous improvement of infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, since 2018, the pace of institutional admission appeared to accelerate the signs. On the one hand can bring mainstream institutions admission incremental funding for the entire market, the development of standardization and also help the entire industry.
BTC circulation market value continues to increase, through digital certificate to embrace regulation, it is expected that ETF will be the core price trend cycle time 4. With the increase of BTC and digital certificate through the market value of the scale, their applications will be more and the legitimate use of linked, rather than illegal activities, according to the U.S. drug enforcement agency (DEA) data, the trading volume of the current BTC only 10% and 90% for illegal activities related to legitimate transactions. More funds support BTC more and more huge market value, through digital certificate to embrace regulation to attract more money coming in, and ETF will be a feasible solution, coming from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace regulation.
Although this report explores the use of space and time period is estimated through card especially the bottom of the BTC position and time, but we want to tell you that investors, is a very dangerous dependence on specific investment point and time, we should establish investment based on assessment of the value of the ruler passes.
We recommend investors: one is not easy to predict the market forecast market, it is easy to make mistakes; the two is the feeling cycle, cycle always exists behind the unchangeable human nature; the three is with excellent passes, so the highest odds; four is that the value of the investment valuation, the most important is to keep in mind the valuation, buy cheap, no what can not be bought, the key is the price and the value of the gap (because of particularity, passes so far, and there is no absolute valuation method is very appropriate, but we can use the method of relative valuation by substitution, we can see through the valuation report card series).
For some reason, some nouns in this paper label is not very accurate, such as: digital certificate, digital certificate, through currency, token, Crowdsale, currency, readers can contact us if you have any questions, to discuss.
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