2018 has passed, I miss it. Not because so many things have happened, but because it sets a tone for the next ten years. Has been at the end of this year, the U.S. stock market in October began to slump, eventually escape the reality of myth. Apple shares fell 40% from high explosive, now slowly climbing. China real estate has been dormant, never heard of where to make a lot of money on real estate. A shares almost rushed to the bottom, the Shanghai Composite Index hit 2440.19 points around the private and trust has been constantly explosion. The listed company CEOs side pillow to sleep, and a slump in equity pledge of gambling hardly wished to live. P2P sacked too many people’s money, leaving a feather. Internet traffic is becoming more and more expensive, but the sharp decline in quality. Block chain rolling earthquake sounds, and quietly but go on.
In the past forty years, the human society has hitherto unknown prosperity, free and open, there are a wide range of peace. In recent years have brought us unexpected repetition of history, such as populism, extremism and trade protectionism, especially in 2018 the peak. Such as France’s “yellow jacket” movement, reminiscent of the French Revolution 200 years ago. Trump to revive the American voice intensified, resulting in the white supremacist voice sounded again in the United States, and the Fed’s recent hysterical criticism and shutdown that divisions within the United States camp. Sino US trade war is the whole human eyes are on China and the United states.
Back to the Chinese, 2019 China also happens to be the cause of reform and opening up 40th anniversary in the past forty years, Chinese gained hitherto unknown achievement. Almost never seen a country which young people would like China generally full of youthful spirit. The power of national consensus has been far beyond the imagination of all economists. But regulation and anxiety, from the beginning of last year to become the main melody. The people of the future direction of economic development and structural adjustment have been lost.
In fact, I would like to say is that these are not isolated incidents, but a chain caused by the Domino effect. Humanity has entered the historical period of the inflection point, this is the superposition of multiple cycles, such as economic cycle, technological innovation, the demographic dividend period and so on. So it seems far away from our historical events and return to the public at present, the final orientation is the result of macroeconomic balance, the next generation of technology revolution and the social redistribution of interests. In the face of history, we are ants, but know the rise and fall of history. In the future, hope this article can let you shallow have an overall impression of 2019 years after all, 2019 will be completed in a few years before the introduction of “unity” role.
There are a lot of people told me that 2019 will be the future best year of the decade. I do not agree.
No matter what will happen to 2019, will become history. The decline of the old forces regardless of how to seize the future is impossible, and the new force, every day in the future will be brilliant.
The core of the period of demographic dividend and economic cycle
Do not know if you have not found the United States 1929 years after the stock market crash, asset bubble burst, financial crisis. But after the war from the 1950 to 1970 in the early 1990s, the financial crisis has disappeared. This is the first human for nearly a thousand years to happen, there is no any war for peace. The gap between rich and poor is reduced, the middle class is expanding rapidly and significantly enhance the level of life. The main contradiction of society focused on the shortage of materials, inflation. I have money but I can’t buy things in turn affects your hand the value of money, a relative devaluation. This phenomenon reached its peak in 1970s. At that time in Chinese domestic is the performance of various ticket supply, in the global economic environment, there is no difference between the East and the west.
This process is particularly simple to understand, after a brief battle after the economic crisis, in 1924 entered a relatively stable period. But the gap continues to increase, has peaked in 1929 5%, the rich 1/3 grasp the wealth of society and families below poverty line accounted for 60% of the whole society. Social distribution is very uneven, so everything had to reinvent the wheel. From the beginning of 1950 last 1970 in economic growth until the global, have shown a steady state.
After 1980s, the middle of 80s, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1997 Asian financial crisis in 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis. After that, the world began to strengthen financial supervision, not only is China, all over the world to do the same thing. Black Swan events also occur repeatedly, such as British exit, Trump’s “priority”, trade protection policy, the European anti immigrant, Italy Wuxing Party movement and so on, it is more and more big global social polarization between the rich and the poor bring side effects. In China, we have been Tucao media supervision, financial management, in fact is the times to happen.
In fact, from 1929 to 2019. All events not jump to two basis, one is the demographic dividend, another is the economic cycle. Why the U.S. stock market in 1929 after the collapse of the economic depression, and after 10 years of continuous downturn? From the perspective of the population can provide an explanation in a war, with weapons from the United States in 20s traded European gold, at the same time is accompanied by a large number of immigrants to the United States, europe. It is also because of the emergence of the cheap labor force, promote economic development throughout the United states. 29 -33 years after the stock market crashed, European immigrants flooded out of the great depression is caused by opportunistic defeat, of course, from another angle to explain, is the capital of the bloody defeat of the naive fantasy. After the great depression in 1929 of ten years, it is the inevitable result of cheap labor transfer.
Beginning in 1990 the Japanese economy lost in twenty years, the serious population aging problem, at the same time, the comprehensive westernization education policy and make the whole country young people begin to elite, young people prefer to do odd jobs is not willing to play in a big company. The final result is economic stagnation, currency deflation. Similarly, in 2008 after the global financial crisis, we see a typical phenomenon, is the global population aging brings economic power weakened. If no young people can provide national labor, how the development of this country? This is a big problem. In fact, China is also facing such a problem, this is also the core Chinese government has been in thought, not the old rich first, how to solve?
As for the economic cycle, economic growth and economic recession, together called a “economic cycle”. Economy is the foundation of the whole country is all industries, and these industries can be divided into upper, middle and lower reaches. This is a national economy complete industrial chain: consumer demand by the downstream upstream transmission, product supply from upstream to downstream transfer. While stimulating the economy is nothing more than three carriages: investment, consumption and export. The middle formation is a from “economic growth” to “economic overheating” to “the recession” finally entered the “depression” period.
So simple, the performance is higher than the population growth in demand capacity released from upstream to downstream, but downstream conduction takes time period. On the formation of the so-called “demographic dividend is higher than the economic growth” at this time, it is a bubble. Is the essence of spending, the future is expected to see you today in advance, and then based on past data to tell you the future of a bright future. When the foam to a certain extent, the economy is not normal, may or may not be controlled by the control. This is the “economic overheating”. When the bubble cannot control blasting, whether man-made or natural. Followed by the “recession” in, this time is to pay off, then reflected in the industry is the people to share the results of economic.
You can choose, is shared in this generation, batch or bear, or a person take part, let us assume the next generation. But there are smart people make money in economic growth and economic bubbles, then becomes a wise man early exit, not clever back, the poor is the ordinary people bear most of the results. This time there have been similar to the great depression in 1929 after ten years of chaos. Why? Leek cut finished, the next crop is not long, how to do? A chant. This support is the process of “depression.” the old rapid death, no new students.
There is a variable of this time: Science and technology innovation. What is the essence of science and technology innovation through technology revolution? What is the cost of reducing friction. Friction reducing cost? A is infinite and efficient one is infinite cost. To speed up the efficiency in essence is to reduce the time cost of friction, and the other one is to reduce the cost of economic friction. The simplest example: the earliest I from Beijing to Shanghai, only to walk, or ride, this time to the middle, often have no way to communicate with others. To a small city to adjust rest. Then there was a steam train, although time is very long, but at least we can follow the same car chat bubble blow water, what a girl to relieve fatigue. Mechanical car appeared again after a day to go. Then take the train by plane high-speed rail, 35 hours to go. The next stage is no electric car, you open the conference call in the car, video conference, you busy working, doing the doing, to open his own car. The efficiency is not a tiny bit.
Another example: the original traditional industries are intermediary layers of subcontracting, there will be the cost of wholesale center, logistics and transport costs, the cost of agents at all levels, so the price is not easy to reduce. Later, the emergence of the Internet, the Internet is that you don’t multi agency. I have a large intermediary, solve all the problems of information distribution. This time cost is reduced. But also improve the efficiency of the original line, I also specifically went to see, and now I’m at home to the Internet using a mobile phone to see on the line. After the block chain, chain block to the center of the intermediary also kill, no intermediary, and the machine is not the cost of the network, users are both contributors and beneficiaries, is not only a part of the generation of the network, and is a part of network development. The whole network is self-sufficient, the marginal cost is almost zero, the marginal benefit maximization. The overall efficiency is more high than the Internet do not know how many times.
So almost without exception, every recession will bring the next generation of economic cycle technology revolution, and every time the recession will produce the next generation of technology revolution core products. For example, last round of economic recession period is from 1973 until 1982. The world’s first personal computer (though not as domestic) is 1973 by the Xerox Co of the invention, the main supply mechanism. Until 1981 the PC (personal computer). The original version of the internet protocol is the December 1969 U.S. at the United States Department of defense under the command of the military for connection, starting from the four main computer four connected to the university. Until March 1989, the father of the world wide web. Berners Lee Tim formally proposed the idea of the world wide web, December 1990 developed the first web browser in the world, the rise of the Internet officially announced.
In the next hundred years, science and technology innovation is actually a robot and a human who dominated the process of scramble.
It should be mentioned first demographic dividend, because talent is our most basic comment on the development of the world elements. People are both producers and consumers, but in different proportions of different ages. When a person is in a child there are mainly older consumers, young to middle-aged main producers. So if a young country more, so it is easy to produce a lot of labor. Another important indicator is the young than the elderly, this shows that social production supply exceeds demand, they changed the demographic dividend. You know, a country are young people, have strong energy, will produce a variety of needs. The economy of this country is sure to go, after all production workers, the product demand is also very diverse. If the young people of a country are extremely rare, old man, that the country is the development of what ah. Go to the why why.
So far, the history of mankind has only seen a real demographic dividend is opened in 50s. After the Second World War in times of peace, before thousands of years are war, there is no demographic dividend. From 50s to 70s, the birth rate is greatly improved, the West has the baby boom. At the same time, technological progress, improve the living standards of reducing neonatal mortality, and then to the time of the 70s and 80s, the birth rate is suddenly reduced, the proportion of labor and consumption is the formation of force, and then formed a demographic dividend.
Why then will reduce the birth rate? I thought about, is estimated to have 2 reasons: one is the 60 of the contraceptive pill became popular, female sovereign rise, caused the country’s fertility rate began to decline; the other is Chinese to implement the family planning policy, especially the 1970-1980 began in the “one child policy” leads to the birth rate dropped significantly. The East and West combined, appeared in human history the first large-scale demographic dividend.
So what are the benefits of demographic dividend? This is good but more to go. Do you want to work ah, than to eat more, product supply will certainly exceed demand. First, prices do not go up, young people have money, there is power consumption. How to do and then out of the product? Export products to the lack of national. This is not to pull the economic growth of one country? In addition, how to do consumption over, money, a conservative, was sent home, deposit in the bank. Is it increase a country’s savings? The radical point, start looking for a variety of investment channels, this is not the increased economic growth.
In fact, China’s 90 began to appear obvious demographic dividend. China’s savings rate and investment rate from 90 began to grow in the 1970s. In addition, the most important is that the demographic dividend will push up the price of real estate. You know, the whole society high savings rate, investment demand is strong, relatively less in investment products under the condition of the first thought is the real estate, another young population, the total should get married, get married this house has become a top priority. Before China no commercial housing, from the beginning of 1998 with commercial housing, why China prices will rise up, find the reason.
We look at the prices in america. The demographic dividend is 1988 -1989 started, 2007 -2008 reached its peak. It is also in the same period, the real estate related with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. Housing prices in 2008 fell to the bottom, began to rebound in the past 10 years. But in view of the entire U.S. population bonus disappears, I do not think the future of the United States in 2007 prices will return to the peak period. But it is not mean that the United States can not do real estate investment? I think not, as if the asset allocation or immigration, the U.S. real estate is an effective weapon against inflation, over the past hundred years, the U.S. real estate has been stable performance in anti inflation, only nearly fifteen years before the emergence of investment benefit. Overall, the future of real estate throughout the United States will decline in the channel, as if the stock fell several times rise, but still does not change the facts down.
Back view of Europe, we subconsciously feel expensive prices in europe. I went to Iceland for two years. This is the most expensive one of the legendary country. The capital of Reykjavik, the core of the CBD section on the tallest residential prices only 20 thousand yuan a square. The core is no one. In fact, the inflection point of demographic dividend in Europe than in the United States, 10 years earlier, in 1998 has reached its peak. Japan is the 1990 demographic dividend after prices peaked, I haven’t been back peak, relatively stable. Even if the core area of Tokyo, there are a lot of the house is only 50 thousand -6 million yuan / square meters, compared to the imperial Shanghai isn’t that bad a tiny bit.
Wake up, why I gave the example of the United States and Europe to Japan? Because of China’s demographic dividend peaked in 2018-2019 years. So you told me the future of China’s housing prices will rise sharply, I don’t believe. In 2018 China’s urbanization rate has reached 60%, 75% and 25% from the saturation value of space. China will reach 75% of the estimated 2030 urbanization rate, deducting the inflation rate of CPI. If it is occupied, according to the current price of basic does not have benefit. If the investment, which will invest a lot of money on the other 25% earned ten years? Of course, I said, is the national average, does not represent a city.
So from the beginning of 2019, the future will no longer hear someone say on housing earn a lifetime money. This time has passed. But surely there will still be people by the house to make money, as long as it is an investment product, there is buy low and sell high, the investment cycle and the specific investment products. 08 years at the lowest point to buy houses in the United States, today must also make money, but the price can not return to the peak.
In Chinese, price stability is the main melody of the probability of the next ten years starting from 2019.
We have heard Kang estimation of wave period and the people Zhou Jintao, unfortunately, died young, do not know is not leak too much secret.
In the world economic cycle in motion the longest cycle is referred to as the Kondratieff cycle, Kang wave cycle, a cycle is 50-60 times a year. It is divided into the rise, prosperity, recession, the recession four stages. The four stage is not exactly what I mentioned before, economic growth, economic overheating and economic recession because of depression, Kang wave as a complete economic cycle is often ahead of time, while asset prices lag. For example, the prosperity of this round of Kang vertex wave period in 2004, but the world’s largest subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. The year 2015 is the turning point of the steering depression from a recession, but now we are still waiting for the huge financial storm.
Each period will be led by a core technological revolution, the world’s leading country, divided into four types, with the country after country and country resources. For example, this round of Kang wave, the United States is the leading Internet and computer, because of his invention. Chinese is to catch up with the country’s typical, showing the barbarians skills in technology with the characteristics of the barbarians. With the country often is leading the development of technology with the beneficiaries, such as Japan, uk. The resources of China are generally small area and resources as the leading countries and regions, such as Hongkong and australia.
More than a Kang wave period as an example, in the works of Phillips Kevin. “A book read” in the history of American wealth, said from the 1966 -1982 is the hidden depression. The collapse of the core performance is the stock market after the 1929 great depression. Once inflation in the United States experienced the worst peacetime, prices rose 3 times, while the middle class income average decrease of 10%. To further increase the social gap between the rich and the poor. The recession led to the “Harvard Business Review” the reader to do research, there are more than 3/4 of the respondents showed extreme pessimism. Of course, the Kang wave cycle, actually contains two stages, one is from 1966 -1973 years of recession, the other one is from 1973 -1982 years of recession.
In fact, the lowest point in this period of the stock market in 1975. In November 14, 1972, the Dow Jones index climbed 1000 points, fell to 550 points in early 1975, soon at the end of 1976 the Dow back 1000 points. But because the U.S. economy has not improved and so fell rapidly from 1977 last year between -1982, has 800-1000 points in a narrow range of fluctuation.
But as I said before, it is this period gave birth to this round of Kang wave period the core technology of information revolution, the Internet revolution. This round of Kang wave period is from 1982 to 1991 has started to pick up. This time is the core of the stock market rebound, 1982, the U.S. economy gradually out of the shadow of “stagflation”, the national economic boom index began to rise. When the end of the year, the Dow again firmly stand on the 1000 point mark. By the end of 1985, the Dow topped 1500 points. Then in January 8, 1987, the Dow soared, the first break 2000 point mark. Although the same year, slumped in the stock market crash, but by April 17, 1991, the Dow has exceeded 3000.
As the core index of the information on the Internet, there are two nodes: one is to rewrite the history of 93 years of windows3.11, joined the revolutionary network; another is that in 94 years the killer app — netscape. It is precisely because of the windows joined the Internet function, we can begin to produce large possibility of using personal computer. The browser just to help ordinary people understand what is the Internet can be used to find all kinds of information.
This round of Kang wave cycle boom is just from the beginning of 1991 until 2004. 2000-2004 years to reach the prosperity of vertex. Why this time is the prosperity of vertex. The first is the Internet bubble burst in 2000 caused a large number of enterprises disappear. The second is what we see today almost all of the Internet giant, basically at this time before and after the birth or the key inflection point. Google was founded in September 1998, Baidu was founded in January 2000, Tencent was founded in November 1998, Ali was founded in 1999, FACEBOOK was founded in February 2004, Apple launched the IMAC in 2001, the same year the launch of IPOD. Netflix subscription service began in 1999. Amazon in 2002 fourth quarter profit for the first time.
Then the recession is Kang wave in 2004 -2015. We find that the recession began in 2004, appeared in 2008 the global subprime crisis. This shows that there is a transfer of Kang wave period of progressive time. From the 08 year after the economic crisis, we found that the China real estate market soared 10 times, the stock market in the United States from 7800 to October 2018 in rose to a record high of 26951 points. The recession is characterized by a slowdown in economic growth, but asset prices continued to rise, but.
Why this is a turning point in 2015, because the whole world is talking about the supply side reforms. If you look at the global economic history shows that when it comes to the supply side reforms, it is certain to begin to enter the recession. The first is economic stagnation, then asset prices fell overall. This is the typical feature of depression.
In addition, you think, this round of Kang wave period is caused by the United States, the United States is certainly leading the country to catch up with the country’s Chinese as Internet technology, now there are all kinds of mobile phone intelligent hardware devices are developing better than the United States, and that this technology is how to go down? Certainly the end. So Zhou Jintao’s conclusion is that 2019 is an inevitable global asset prices fell across the turning point. Unfortunately, I very much agree with this view. The next ten years, must be spent in the great depression.
So the question is, why in the beginning of 2019, we will see the stock market soared Chinese and US stock market rally?
Sino US trade war
The United States has chosen the wrong time, wrong place, wrong way and China. This time, the United States will lose.
In fact, Trump into the pit, we must believe that Chinese leaders are not in the dragon, dragon is Long Fengzhong. 1 billion 700 million candidates out of the elite wisdom plus traditional China nation. They must be the most sober to see the most clear, most of the people thought. Why, because he has the Chinese resources. So his thought is the overall view.
Now the stock is in the highest position, in October 18 reached a peak of 26951 points. At the same time China stocks at historic lows, the lowest to 2440 points, just in the national boundary line ups and downs. After the stocks at the end of 18 fell to 21724 points, is now in the stage of rebound. Here is a very interesting data, is the United States in February 19 the unemployment rate reached a low of half a century ago, only 4%. But labor income is still very low, at the same time, a serious shortage of labor. Another sign is corporate profits are rising. The inflection point with the last round of the wave cycle especially similar kang.
Mean for the US economy, the next ten years will face a recession such as 1973 -1982 years.
Trump is clever, from a certain extent, he represents the American ideology. When it must happen, you need to select the extreme open to throw the helve after the hatchet, another possibility. So will the American protectionist war in 2018, the rise of populist white supremacy. Only war can change public opinion, whether real or virtual.
But the real enemy is not China, is its own fiscal deficit. From 2022 to 2029, the annual budget deficit of more than $1 trillion. If the 2019 U.S. stocks plummeted, the budget deficit will advance more than $1 trillion, which will cause the global financial chain reaction.
So the results of the mid-term elections, that within the United States completely split. The Democratic Party with 220 votes for the Republican House master, master the 51 votes in the senate. The United States House of representatives have infighting, property rights, basic on behalf of the Wall Street voted together with Trump to play. Trump is a businessman, very smart, even a genius. But the Fed is playing the financial heart of the U.S. economy, but behind the door. Then as such play, the U.S. economy certainly finished so quickly and began to raise interest rates, the probability of 2019 will increase interest rates three times. The interest rate is for what? For the financial crisis when you cut the weapon to regulate the economy.
We must have a clear understanding, is now the global economy is not good, including China. The global depression come at any time, so we have to prepare a long economic winter. But when the bear came when your logic should not be kill bears, but should be faster than everyone around you to be fast, so the bears eat is not for you. China is actually on this logic.
From October last year China stocks at historic lows. But really alone, I heard a leader with my emotion, in recent years, corruption, the central enterprises is to earn a lot of money ah, don’t look at the private economy is not good, is that all countries should make you set, to prevent capital outflows. In fact, from the beginning of last year, the central enterprises subordinate unit of investment in the acquisition of a large number of top private enterprises in various industries, the fear is that in the financial tsunami is the national excellent foreign assets to buy. In other words, the stock market is Chinese, more than 70% countries are holding. How does Trump you play with me?
In recent years China’s high prices why? Is in fact the people in the hands of RMB suocang. Would you like to go for the United States had foreign Kingnet, loans to buy a house now, where do not dare, dare not laid off, so honestly, don’t want to make a contribution to society, the east to the West. This time the financial crisis occurred when the potential social unstable factors to solve.
China real estate is a bubble, how can not let bubble burst and stabilize prices? The problem facing China is the same with Japan, but Japan is more terrible than others is rich end of old, China is not rich first old. China’s aging problem is more terrible than American rivals.
Why is there a French “yellow jacket” movement? In fact, the essence is the rich western countries of Eastern Europe to snatch the elderly poor young labor. In the United States and Europe, solve the demographic dividend are immigrants. But they bring side effect is very much, such as racial integration, such as culture, such as religious integration, these are problems. The end result is that Western nationals protest the introduction of a large number of people of Eastern Europe resulted in his work was kidnapped, and Eastern Europe also accused his country in Western Europe to snatch the young labor force, leading to their countries fail to develop. This contradiction is irreconcilable. See the EU fast disintegration of the urine will know, it is because of the demographic dividend can not solve the problem, as a result of the recession of the euro.
When the new year made a special trip to Eastern Europe, such as Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria, per capita income was 6000 yuan / month, 5000 yuan / month and 2000 yuan / month. The country is beautiful, rich materials, the price is extremely low, real estate prices are very low. Most important, the street sparse young people are also very lazy, after all, can make money ran out, leaving only the elderly stay in the local life. China just a middle-class past is the nouveau riche.
What is the Chinese way? The country earned money, but also earn a lot of money, with the real estate of the people to lock the warehouse of rmb. Through tax reform and global tax let rich people give me money, so want to let people become rich first drive after the rich. The results of the first rich people run away, changing the RMB into dollars, replaced by the euro, replaced the pound. The national loan for you, all your money volume run, replaced by foreign currency in the stay. You are not playing, global tax. As a result, the RMB is completely 100% kongpan.
The remaining question is how to pull the disc? Along the way is the essence of my money, you have a young workforce. As investment in Internet companies, I invest in you, your brother with common prosperity. I will not, for you 10%, 20% of the shares. If you lose, it is the national bankruptcy, I renzai. If you are the country’s rising valuations, but I have to cash dividends plus options. Developed countries in the future there will be more and more The Belt and Road this mode of learning.
Who doesn’t do this? China neither take the young labor force you, your country economic development you young people in your country. I do not rob you of your economic achievements, I advance investment, you share the fruits of victory. At the same time, Chinese and resolve their problems before getting rich. The core is a key to the national power, put the money out, making the future more money with money today. This is a win-win situation, but also the formation of different countries industry alliance, play well, that is the national level Softbank. This time, the Chinese real estate bubble is the actual investment to offset the national economic growth, this is the next few years of the Great Depression of Chinese real estate stable core.
The original American logic is the logic of war or gangster logic. Is my money, all over the world to pay, you don’t believe, I will beat you. Europe is the logic I give you the money, you put the young man to me, your own country don’t develop. Today, China logic is, I rise, I share my experience, resources and money to the world, we win together, you do it? This time, the Sino US trade war just gives an unprecedented opportunity for the internationalization of rmb.
In this war, U.S. stocks highs, in stocks at the bottom, the United States does not take opportunity; Geopolitics, and North Korea could not agree on, Canada, Japan, European allies lost, not for austria. The internal division, the demographic dividend disappeared, not for people and. The real estate slump, the next round of technological revolution is not an advantage. Shut down the government, Trump can move is also very limited, will not break Poguanposhuai, China overtaking.
Media supervision, network supervision and financial supervision, is to fight a battle with weapons. Luo Zhenyu is an example of Taobao in the spring of 2018 ad, when not imagine should be what the situation is, do not know how to deal with the server, then multiplied by eleven double peak flow by three times the processing. The ad came out on the same day, Taobao server crashes, the last traffic is exactly 15 times eleven double peak flow. Chinese too many people, the whole society is completely separated, sacrifice in front of great battle, to complete the whole nation completely rise, is the need to be forgiven.
The country is in trouble, everyone is responsible for. We this generation of temporary sacrifice, the result is Chinese long outbreak.
Now as we rush in the highway like levels, this foot oil might go up in front of his career is as boundless as the sea and sky. At this time, I advise those who want to leave China buddy of immigrants. Today you leave it in a great bull market, only had a short bull market began to fear, in a fall, completely out of the. But the real bull market is not open, the next 50 years is the big bull market in real China. After your descendants will laugh at you. Today, and China don’t share joys and sorrows with you tomorrow, China will not share the wealth.
In life, a country is voting with their feet, you where are you going to an elevator, if you are an elevator of the rapid rise, no matter what you do, will be higher and higher. On the other hand, in a stagnant or even declining in the elevator, no matter what you do, can not match the increasingly high position. We are all in the Republic of this country and we are closely related to shareholders. Whether it is active or passive, we are Chinese fate and tightly bound together. It is the best way to protect you pull together in times of trouble, wealth.
A few days ago, Mr Xi also voice. Support the healthy development of the stock market China. What’s the meaning of this? Is to tell you, I will take you with money. Buy a house, the equivalent of the money handed over to the state savings into the stock market. In the equivalent of state shareholders. The 2440 is the Chinese national line ups and downs of the country to encourage you. Hunters. Remember that in 1975 the Dow Jones index is the lowest point of 550, by 2018 26951.
I still remind you, from the beginning of 2019 the next ten years is a global recession. So I tend to think that 2440 is at the bottom of the long-term, but the great depression at the beginning of the Chinese need to do is to get the fundamentals of slow chase capital. Through the lessons of 2015, the country will not let the stock market plummeted. So I tend to the shocks between 2440-3100 points in 2019.
If the margin trading in 2015 style comeback, and the real estate to relax regulation, then we will witness a speculative frenzy such as 2015, but I like this will not happen. It is Chinese fell to the bottom rebound, the future for a long period of time is in shock the bull market will not happen overnight. Requires great patience, and national fate.
Why should the bitcoin alone carry out, because it is too special.
In fact, a point to point network papers appeared in 2000. In 2008 10 months the Cong integrates a variety of technical ideas originally, a bitcoin white paper. In January 2009, the first bitcoins were dug out. This moment, completely changed the process of human being. Many people do not understand bitcoin, think it is no meaning and value of the air.
But how many people know why, 2017 9.4 incident, because China safe intervention. Why do we need safe intervention, is Chinese because bitcoin lost $2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves. First, put aside the U.S. launched currency war on China. We can think out, bitcoin actually mastered the world’s $4 trillion flow. If an enterprise can master the $4 trillion flow, do you think this enterprise valuation should be?
Many people told me that the main role of bitcoin is transfer in the dark net. In fact, in 2017 9.4 before the event, 80% of the global bitcoin are circulating in the dark web. But after the 9.4 incident, 80% bitcoin circulation have become a bright net.
I think bitcoin core turning point in June 2018 to August, because in August 3rd the NYSE’s parent company announced the launch of “bitcoin futures” and “digital currency trading platform Bakkt”. This means that a large number of currency assets will be poured into the bitcoin market . The rule is especially worth pondering, is the 1:1 anchoring, and bitcoin spot what concept? Is the whole world to gold as the rules of the game. Basically sure of bitcoin as a “digital gold” value.
And China, we observe is the attitude of the government. Although the 2017 9.4 China showed the history of the most severe denial, in fact, the reason behind is the currency war with the United states. So we don’t see the partial view, to think about nature. From the beginning of June 2018, CCTV began to find the blockchain big coffee all over the world for dialogue, people’s Daily has been issued on the expression of bitcoin. This shows that the national thinking is very clear. Bitcoin is the inevitable trend of human history, is not change can be destroyed can not be reversed. The flow is the wisdom of our ancestors, China. The door more than you.
Buffett’s father has been the 99% make a fetish of accumulation of wealth, is actually 53 years later. Buffett was born in 1930, is the first pot of gold is earned at the age of 11 stocks, in 1941, this is a good year. Remember the Kang wave period? In 1929 1933 to open ten years of the great depression, until 1940. 1941 is just the starting point of Kang wave cycle the next round of rebound.
In 1950, Buffett was 20 years old when the accumulated $9800, until the end of the last round of Kang wave cycle, completed the primitive accumulation. At the age of 53, was 1983. The Kang wave cycle recovery starting point, history is so interesting, it is because the Kang wave period, Buffett became known as the Buffett today.
But Buffett never got the Internet, even to buy Apple stock, but also in the history of buying high, the disk access man all over the world. Four stocks he love most were Coca-Cola, Kaf Henry S, candy and Gillette razors. You make a troika, tell me how to build Tesla, even if he is the best trainer, I don’t think you should go to listen to his advice. What’s more, bitcoin leather is Buffett father’s life, he has no reason to support you to buy. This is the vast majority of humanity cannot exceed the snag, you know you have been abandoned by the times, but you still can not be relieved.
Why bitcoin leather is Pakistan father’s life. This had to mention the nature of bitcoin, bitcoin as a store of value “digital gold” concept has been deeply rooted. Although relatively early, but bitcoin is a as long as you buy it, you are the subjects of the country. This is the consensus. You are a part of the bitcoin network, at the same time, it is the value of the contribution of, and eventually you become the beneficiary to capture more value. This is the history of mankind, the first non dominated the country. While bitcoin itself is the country’s sovereign currency.
That means bitcoin competition is not gold, nor even apple, not Google, but Fiat. So in 2017, we heard that the Japanese first bitcoin legalized. We don’t think this is the Japanese government niubable performance. Japan after 90s, has lost thirty years, so far have not recovered. The whole economy is deflation, relatively stable. So in foreign exchange trading, the yen, pound, Euro dollar is the currency used to anchor. I have been to Europe and the United States was raped by a bitcoin does not matter. But hold the thigh than bitcoin thigh but many hold the United States, another possible move to beat me, at least I can own this has the final say.
In fact, bitcoin is the best choice for a weak currency. Originally a national currency is pointing out the gold, after World War II, the Bretton Woods system, $ofanchoring gold, the whole world ofanchoring dollars. Later, because the dollar cost overruns, compensate, so the system was abolished in 1971, the dollar and gold decoupling. But you have to give people a better explanation. The 1973 Middle East war for the United States to continue to provide strong support, the dollar linked to oil. The whole world needs to buy oil, but oil in dollars. So the world currency have been holding dollars. Today, bitcoin to all vulnerable currencies around the world an excuse to flee.
Today we see bitcoin legalization is a weak currency country or island. The United States has put bitcoin securitization, semi legalization. Is that bitcoin status, but does not recognize its currency competition. Why the United States will make such a choice? FBI is in fact the United States except Nakamoto So bitcoin holders, it was a masterstroke. Balance Chinese through bitcoin, there are 9.4 events of the 2017 China. If bitcoin is bigger, the dollar could minutes from oil, linked bitcoin.
But until today, it has become another manifestation of the U.S. division. Trump and the Wall Street break up, but Wall Street is also very tangled, on the one hand, the old vested interests against bitcoin, the digital currency investors group new increasingly active in support of bitcoin. A weak currency in the dollar system from RMB or bitcoin to flee. But the United States government into an embarrassing situation. Respected bitcoin may weaken the dollar, against bitcoin may not prevent the internationalization of rmb.
Buffett is a strong dollar that the interest, he has no reason to agree with their competitors more and more. In the end, Buffett will also falls from the altar to earth. There is no God, only the eternal game. When the network rise, become eternal, God can only be cast into the shade quietly.
As for Chinese, I don’t think in the next few years, we will see a legitimate bitcoin news. After all, Chinese will rise, the RMB internationalization is the first priority. But does that mean that China will miss this wave? I think on the contrary. In fact, throughout the world, the entire block chain and digital currency areas are Chinese in leading, or bright or dark. Before there was Chinese will be issued by the national credit endorsement for the digital currency, it is imperative. Today living around the world do block chain block chain technology, policy, economy, block chain block chain block chain preaching and downstream industries Chinese patriots are the future by these large foreign rural areas surrounded by large Chinese city fire. Sparks of fire can start a prairie fire.
In fact, in 2016 the government has put forward Chinese high-rise block chain development based on the idea of complete, there is a complete report. Even put forward this trend block chain based on how the center of the national government and to the center of the trend with the birth of the next generation of government. The idea of the senior leadership at xiongan. Chinese the wisdom of the leaders is far higher than we imagine, we must have a clear understanding of.
Bitcoin has passed its original ten years. January 3, 2019 is just ten years old birthday. In 2019, you should be concerned just should be bitcoin. Because through the 2018 inflection point, destined for the next ten years is the bitcoin is exposed to sunlight, and regulated by fear, the opposition until finally becomes mankind consensus ten years.
2019 bitcoin like 2000 years as the price of the amazon. You may see the 1998 Amazon’s stock price is $3, then rose to $221.25 in 1999 when. You have been afraid to buy. Then a crash, 2001 years the stock price fell to $11. You just learned to laugh at Bezos. And at once the heart has been vigorously promoted than the Amazon, even from those in the past with you to buy Amazon stock over 70 times the person found the psychological balance.
Never be your foolish beat. If you buy the Amazon in 2001, long held for 18 years, you will be surprised to find that this every day by different people to die of the company’s share price was up to the maximum of $2091 a share. Over nearly 200 times. If you’re not so lucky in 17 years or even earlier heard of bitcoin, so I hope you can hold your life in 2019 one of the biggest opportunities to invest bitcoin, even buy 0.01.
The next ten years of the great depression may lead to human social ideology turbulence may go beyond our imagination, and this time just for bitcoin of the country’s population dividend opened a huge space. Before 9.4 2017 5 million to 20 million today, the future of this number will be extended to 7 billion or even 10 billion people. People. Because according to a report by the UN, the human population will reach 10 billion in 2050. This time is likely to be the next wave of Kang vertex prosperity cycle.
Block chain and digital currency
Why do you want to separate the blockchain with bitcoin, because the block chain as a whole with the emergence of Internet technology evolution is a meaning. This is a huge wave, will take everyone around the world.
In fact, before 2017 the world really play in block chain and digital currency only 5 million years ago, 13 less. Until 15 years all over the world really ran out of the project is very small. In the wave of the digital currency market, is also the end of 13 -15 years at this stage. There have been thousands of currency, can stay alive today is but a few of the 10. The survival rate of less than 1%. This time it is easy to understand. When is very scarce a market subject, and level two market participants and the market shows the effect of the head. Finally, the birth of a bear market on the left is king of the etheric fang.
Wave of a bear market bitcoin fell more than 87%, from 8000 yuan in 13 years in November fell to 900 yuan in September 15. From the bottom of the bear market began to go up at the end of 15, when we began to find the square value of ethernet. In fact, the etheric workshop is released by the end of 13, the white paper. After two years of bear market, the fastest to find the application scenarios of the digital currency, the first run out. Of course there today you may be heard up to the world, and are Aiouta Gerbaud because in a bear market to find its unique application scenarios.
Now, bitcoin blockchain and digital currency market as a whole in the bottom position, it is the same with the Sino US trade war truth, when the old world and the new world is just beginning to sprout, the specific events often appear is the old world without exception in the wrong time in the wrong way and place a New World War, ending already doomed when the story begins.
Return to the time of block chain. A wave of big wave digital currency is 13-15 years, this time happens to be this round of Kang wave period from recession to a turning point in the recession. As we have said, in the last round of Kang wave cycle of recession and depression will be the birth of a Kang wave cycle core technology. Coincidentally, 19 years we are talking about is 5G commercial .
Today, what are we talking about things we are talking about AI artificial intelligence, block chain and IOT?
Human IQ limit can reach 200, which is now science has proved that the. The robot? The robot can reach the IQ of more than 10000. Humans and robots can not be compared. This will be a new species. Google AlphaGo with three and a half years time to study human chess finally defeated the human. AlphaZero through the confrontation with their own learning, only 40 days to complete the AlphaGo.
The whole human history, appeared for the first time a kind of new species, productivity is far more than human, this is artificial intelligence .
Two days before the group Tesla riders on the bombing, because suddenly all Elon Musk Tesla models are about 30% lower prices. There are a lot of people say to rights. These people will never understand intelligent machines. Tesla is no longer a car, but a form of artificial intelligence have limbs, like a biological machine, the tire is only four feet of it. But the core is his body and mind can sustainable upgrade. Upgrade the software system and hardware system is much faster than we can imagine. The IOT network is to solve the interconnection of all things, which is meant to help the world all production data to join the Internet, join the block chain system.
What is the blockchain? Why are humans so against it, and its kernel seems so hard to understand. Because of the block chain network is not for human beings, in order to machine you exist.
In the foreseeable future, human productive forces can not go beyond the robot. A single human is not enough to fight with the machine. If there is a beyond any human species, human can leave far away, then it is not what we call God?
But God has the same things cannot be done in the next 30 years, is the human mass collaboration, complete production. This is the chain block. Block chain is through the network to all mankind together participate in this large-scale cooperation, which in a way of liberation unprecedented production relations. The original in a project, the brand side to find the design to find production factory, further complete the production, followed by the logistics and transport coordination, through a large number of time and time to produce products circulation. With the participation of human production relations always are too structured, either flat or multidimensional. In the block chain, we only need to become a node of the network, then put all the trust to the network, each network between themselves scheduling node production relations.
Today, the Internet has been completely contrary to the original intention of its inventor, by an open network into a data island. Tencent is not their own data share of Ali, Google will not have their data share to Baidu. It is because of the formation of the data island, so now AI development will be so slow. The network needs to be full of human data, it is not for an individual or a group of people or a country person, for all mankind.
Block chain, is human through mass collaboration, to the network, to a large number of human behavior with machine data to complete the AI network upgrade mode. How to contribute their human behavior data? Is through the internet intelligent hardware chain.
Why would you start from bitcoin, frequently heard the word machine? Bitcoin is in infrastructure for the Internet — computer as transition to complete self evolution. Many people ask when quantum computer appears, bitcoin is not have no value. I just thought of the bitcoin network will at that time to adapt to the evolution of quantum computer. The future of the emergence of new blockchain machine should be what? Is these help intelligent hardware production on the chain, to help people to upload their own data through intelligent hardware mining behavior, and ultimately help the network to complete its own mission. This is not the mobile internet intelligent hardware infrastructure, will be the next generation of products, such as AR and VR this kind of liberation hands infrastructure outbreak.
The machine can produce their own nerve AI, but only human through networking intelligent hardware to human behavior data uploaded to the block chain to form large-scale cooperative human generated data can help the machine AI to a peaceful coexistence with humans in the future. This is so important for the blockchain. It is the most important turning point in the history of mankind. Is carbon based life to begin the life of silicon.
2019 years is so important, because today we have seen the emergence of the 5G network, no high-speed network will not be able to achieve all of the data we have just said. The unmanned as an example, when the L3 level auxiliary automatic drive, 1 kilometers of road data is about 15KB, when the L4 level of the digital 10GB, and to the L5 level of fully automated driving time, this figure will be more than 20TB. So this year, we will begin to witness the artificial intelligence, block chain, networking upgrade.
Return to the last Kang wave cycle, we see the personal computer was in 1973, it is the starting point of a recession on the Kang Bo cycle. And the first 1969 years of the network protocol. Until this round of Kang wave cycle recovery period in 1990 the central only appeared in the first application, browser. This round of Kang wave period from recession to recession in 2015 is a turning point. 09 years appeared bitcoin, this phenomenon with a wave period basically kang.
You may ask me, does that mean we have to wait ten years large range will see the blockchain outbreak? Now there is no investment value? In fact, on the contrary, I think 2019 is the key year of the blockchain. Internet and the blockchain difference is that in the Internet, most of the value by users free enterprise and make money by selling the data by application layer capture, protocol layer basically does not get benefit. But in the block chain, because of the digital currency as a data value circulation way. So the protocol layer is the most valuable, but the application layer was greatly weakened.
On the Internet with the specific differences between the blockchain, please read my last article “excuse me, Mr. Li Guoqing, the first step has been destined to end”. Here is not to discuss, we directly referenced conclusion. The outbreak of the internet protocol layer core of this round of the last round of the wave period Kang Kang wave periods of recession. If I were you, I would be very concerned about the June 2018 block chain project to 2019 and later, there will be the next era of Google.
For the digital currency, as I mentioned before, every digital currency competitors are not Apple or Google, but should be legal tender. Today when we discuss the stock, it is possible that you will bargain greatly undervalued stocks, even junk stocks, there will be a time when speculation. But when we talk about money when you never go to those hunters and collapse of the currency inflation. For example, you certainly not a truth yuan hunters in venezuela.
Any one currency will go through three stages: air coins, application scenarios and generalized narrow application scenarios. Such as the dollar, dollar coin air stage is the 1848 gold rush, this is the American dream. Until the first World War and the Second World War, the United States to find their own narrow application, is a weapon. The European war need to buy weapons from the United States dollars, which is the basis of the Bretton Woods system. By 1973, the dollar will know generalized its own scenario, is oil. It is this stage, the dollar became the world currency.
The ideal country I tend to think of bitcoin as a currency of the air phase is geeks and anarchists, the history of the first pizza for bitcoin events should be the core of this phase of the sign. But the narrow application scenarios bitcoin is in circulation in the dark phase, can change the network to buy all kinds of products in Ming dynasty. 2018, bitcoin is from the narrow application scenarios to the broad application scenarios of turning point, the mainstream capital enter, suggesting bitcoin future broad scene is a large fortune, anchoring and circulation of stored value, or “digital gold”.
This time, we see the blockchain value, also know that this is the trend. But so far, we didn’t fully see the application protocol of a large-scale outbreak of the blockchain. What is the killer application block chain? I think it must satisfy a condition is obtained with the most simple way to distributed trust. What is called distributed trust? Do not need third-party can let each person to reach a consensus on the way, such as the time. Today you will not care about this phone is from which a brand, do not care about your hand is a watch which manufacturers do, on time, we will be very easy to get a consensus.
So the next era of Google, is the killer application protocol block chain, application type male is also linked with the most simple way to get consensus.
The chain block chain map
In the mobile Internet era, we find that the final winner is the main economic share drops, Uber, Airbnb, hungry, U.S. Grab, this kind of Internet companies. Why? Because sharing economy is finally must meet three big factors: the whole group, just, high frequency. A person in the social life, which is the basic food and clothing. Remove the wear away, traffic is basically everyone into the society must use tools, is typical of the whole group, just, high frequency. Then eat any day to eat meals, live not to mention. It is only appeared in the public comment, Ctrip, Qunar such giants.
We have not found the mobile Internet is a common underlying protocol? Is the map.
If there is no map, we can not use the drops, hungry and unable to use the public comments and Ctrip Qunar. Today, I think no one can live off the map, because of the small to a large commercial data navigation, a city and region, we can map out of production. Today I asked you a street in New York and London, you will not have any feeling, because it is you far away, this time, Google map open, it will form a relatively clear perception.
Many people ignore the map because we feel that the map frequency is not high, but in fact, Google map around the world every day is called the number will reach 1 trillion times. Why is there such a high open degree? Because Google maps have more than 1 million APP application software, as long as the use of these software, Google maps will open automatically call our data, each person every day using a mobile phone to use indirect map more than 100 times. It also does not contain a variety of websites, 1/3 is the world’s top websites in the use of Google maps, as long as you open this website will automatically call the default open Google map. Baidu maps and high moral map and also exist more than 300 thousand APP.
Until today, we are still unable to reach a consensus space. Because spatial data is dynamic data, constantly updated. Today the forest tree fell down the street for a restaurant tomorrow. There is a large amount of data actually belong to spatial data. The human space to reach consensus cannot rely on the center of the body. For example, Google, a scanning vehicle price is 200 million yuan, if the car is HD map, the price will be more than 1000 million yuan.
In fact, Google can do map data update area probably covers only 12.5 million people living space, can often do update only about hundreds of millions of people. Human living space to reach a consensus is bound to rely on to the center of the way is the way to reach the blockchain.
In the Internet era, first produced a killer application outbreak is a browser. Only when the browser is generated, you will know to use the Internet to do, is to find all kinds of information. Because of the nature of the Internet is the distribution of asymmetric information. Block chain is the core value of the data flow, what data is the largest in the world, then based on the data generated by the protocol should be block chain world killer application protocol.
You know, the Internet is based on the 70% information space, so that the map is the entire block chain the world’s biggest killer application. And on the Internet, and we do not see the high valuation of the map, is precisely in line with the underlying protocol is ignored, the value is the application type of capture. But to the block chain stage, it will be completely broken.
In the future, no longer appear to block chain in the public comment, Ctrip Qunar and Uber, drops, hungry. Only block chain map. When we discuss these restaurants, cars and takeaway track when they are part of a block chain map. Just as Airbnb is actually composed of housing owners through their own mobile phone or other device to scan its panoramic camera housing data uploaded to the public map block chain chain, direct call intelligence contracts, show to people all over the world to see their own housing information and free time. Each user can directly call themselves through intelligent contract transaction procedure, a predetermined period of time in the room. This time, Airbnb data generated by the owner becomes one of the data block chain map layer public housing data layer chain.
There are cars, become a real Uber location sharing, each car can go through the GPS chain. His behavior trajectory can be tracked. The owner himself became a miner, intelligent data access equipment on the roof with a radar scanner. The lowest cost to solve the problem of data scanning, and the user can safely take the car. It is just one data block chain map layer data layer on the public chain, car. There will be a variety of data layer superimposed on the block chain map, so as to make it become the biggest underlying application protocol. Block chain map is based on the final settlement of different time spatial data value circulation. So the block chain map finally won’t be public chain Google maps, and Google itself will become.
In addition to bitcoin, may block chain map is the largest one in your life to change the fate of the way. It is just this month for the 6 time in 2018 years, I think this is a historical trend. Of course, need time, but not too far away, in the next three to five years, we will see the rise of the next Google.
ONE MAP FOR ALL, AND EVERYTHING.
Back to 2019
2019 to return to this topic, we talked the whole human society the demographic dividend, chatted human itself generates economic cycle Kang wave period based on talk in the next few years the world’s attention to the Sino US trade war. Of course, on behalf of the large-scale human migration and digital currency bitcoin blockchain, as well as the next Google killer application chain chain block chain map public public.
I tend to think that in 2019 I will not choose to go to other countries to buy a large number of real estate, not even in China. For the next ten years will be the great depression, and the depression period, all illiquid assets would be stagflation performance , thus unable to sell. For example, all kinds of art, calligraphy and so on, are illiquid investments.
As for stocks, we saw stocks rebound in early 2019, but all the data on a wave period and the performance of the Kang Kang a wave period based on the indicators in the United States are now based on the interest rate is the inevitable choice, U.S. stocks still does not appear large drop. This time point in 2020, so I want to bargain hunting stocks of friends, don’t misunderstand the market signal. By 2020, the base will be more than you can imagine. Combining all kinds of data, I think stocks at the bottom of the 14820. This figure, we can see the time at the end of 2020.
What happened in 2019 for all the United States is preheated in November 2020 U.S. presidential election. With the U.S. presidential election there may be the black swan event, I believe that the core turning point in Sino US trade war in 2020. There may be accompanied by the Taiwan Strait and the initial effect of North Korea and Trump paranoid ruling way of the internal contradictions and the intensification of Chinese The Belt and Road show. But no matter who is elected, the Sino US trade war, this war is not in the short term ended.
So back to China, I firmly believe that 2440 is the A shares at the bottom of the long-term, 2019 is more suitable for the band, or long holding period, this is a huge rise in the fortunes of the Chinese, with every one of us is closely related. The board is founded by countries in the use of leverage for science and technology the innovation of enterprise support, let the virtual economy to the innovation of science and technology and non real estate.
If in 2019 didn’t have the house on the handle of the China’s family, in 2019 after a long period of time is not a good time, but overall, sell excess investment China house stock market, the future will see more than the house of capital return. If you care enough, then you should hold cash in 2019 until 2020, U.S. stocks lowest point. If you trust enough, you should now put into the Chinese stock market, long-term holders of preparation.
If you are brave enough, you should invest in bitcoin, this is the history of mankind, the largest and most complex game of the brave. Give a little patience, in the next two years you will see a return. China beat turning point in the United States, is also the greatest migration in human history the official start of the time. The real world is highly uncertain, the growth rate will make bitcoin to you can’t imagine. The next ten years, the Great Depression of the whole human society will bring a massive flock bitcoin demographic dividend growth period.
If you are not only brave and think deeply enough, then you should invest in a block chain map, Google next time. This may be the biggest change in the opportunity of your life, not one.
I hope 2019 kind to everyone, because it happened in this year, everything will become history, and we will see the future.