Recently a groaning.after encryption currency market, bitcoin from 11/15 after the first crash, 11/20 experienced second wave down to today has dropped to about $4300. From Kang Feng (capital of a focus on encryption currency quantitative trading, fund management partners have more than $one hundred million under management experience) Jackson Wang for the market from a macro point of view, as well as bitcoin cash hard bifurcation influence, the market suffered heavy contusion were analyzed.
The future economic status from the U.S. debt spreads
The time since 2008 of the ten year after the financial tsunami, many people have long forgotten the subprime mortgage crisis, financial institutions suffered years of greed. When the U.S. housing bubble, regulators dereliction of duty (mainly on loan and other financial derivatives issued no control number), credit rating agencies rating abuse. Finally, the U.S. government on crisis management is poor, not aware of the seriousness of early, until the stock market crash to react to rescue. Bitcoin appears in the fading period, Nakamoto cast a seed to the world. Up to now, we have experienced 2017 at the end of the bull market together, and now the lingering dejected market situation. In recent years, under the leadership of the United States in the Trump, take the tax cuts and other policies to stimulate the domestic economy. When the dollar continued strong U.S. economy and booming behind, there are the Fed will raise interest rates, shrinking table, treasury bonds and other policies. It led to the current two-year Treasury yields continued to rise and decline in U.S. bond prices (interest rates will lead to yields pulled up, and a large number of bonds leads to the imbalance between supply and demand. It must be noted that the yield and price of a bond is the inverse relationship). “However, as the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, the central bank also is about to exit the QE, in the past a lot of money to full out of the situation is changing, in the past the influx of cash flow assets of all central banks will gradually be recovered, and the yield curve is gradually upside down. “ Kang Feng capital (Coinful Capital) Jackson Wang said to the moving area.
Ten – and two-year Treasury yields difference (Source: Quandl) –
Therefore, the short and long term interest rate (the poor yields of ten year U.S. Treasuries and two-year), to the date when the gap has been reduced to 0.25%, the market is expected from the “overheating” go to “the recession”. Although always spreads are regarded as a reliable economic forecasting index, but we must also understand that the Treasury yield spreads and economic correlation, rather than absolute causality. [*]:QE Quantitative Easing, quantitative easing -, the government will use open market operations, increase market money supply monetary policy. The yield curve inversion, which refers to the current short-term Treasury yields will exceed the long-term treasury yields. Bitcoin is become an independent school in the investment market?
In the past the coin ring part of the bitcoin market expected to become the so-called “safe havens”, but according to the current situation of the observation, encryption money and traditional financial markets are still biased positive correlation. On the other hand, the market also some people think that one of the leading indicators of bitcoin index belongs to the economic situation in some aspects of the. Wang told the moving area: “first, the virtual currency can not be insulated from the traditional financial market, so I first expounded the current situation from the traditional financial market after the financial tsunami, the global central bank massive release of liquidity, a lot of money to full out under the condition of various asset classes are big prices rose. “Wang continued, “The market is generally expected in 2019 or 2020 will usher in a recession, so since October this year, U.S. stocks tumbled more than 10%, and this is just the beginning. The virtual currency represents in the traditional financial market is high beta risk assets, with the overall market risk sentiment to turn evil, a candle in the wind is the virtual currency market. “ Bitcoin cash (BCH) the fire spread market
This relates to the differentiation of social bifurcation hard war, the two camps differ in consensus, respectively support different ideas, so it will cause the entire network division, also resulting in a new crypto currency by birth. The network division will affect the exchange, Chibidaigou, pool, ore miner, will also affect the current market value of encryption currency bitcoin largest (Bitcoin). For bitcoin market part of the BCH bifurcation hard effects, Jackson said: The “virtual currency market is another major event in 11/14, hard BCH bifurcation, the results of ABC and SV camp confrontation is the virtual currency market in the whole BCH split into BCHABC and BCHSV, with the stock market to compare can think that it is the stock issuance of new shares, but the market chase money like other conditions unchanged is the natural result of the stock price fell. “ In the 15 month, bitcoin cash split between Bitcoin ABC and Cash bifurcation coins, Bitcoin Cash SV. The community is split into two kinds of currency, will weaken the BCH community strength, capital flow and the degree of concern were also reduced, BCH price downside risk is as it should be. “So hard BCH bifurcation BTC below maximum support 6000 integer Mark since the beginning of this year, 6000 a long and short outcome had been, then what we all know, BTC below 4300 mark in just a few days. “Jackson said. To sum up, in addition to bitcoin cash market are also considered bifurcation events, fall is a leading U.S. regulators attitude, OKEx commodity futures and other reasons. In the short term bitcoin will be how to go, keep the new low support, will rebound to the growth trend; and associated with the traditional financial market is how will remain one of the direction of the investment community your attention.