In October 31, 2008, Nakamoto bitcoin with his white paper broke into public view.
In the first two years, only a handful of people recognize bitcoin to the center of thought, until 2011, bitcoin began as an investment tool.
In this 8 years, bitcoin has experienced a total of 4 times of prosperity and depression, The last time the great depression is the market, from the last month since the war continued to slump bifurcation.
Speculators already withdraw to believers still insist on hold bitcoin. And this article, will be dedicated to the swing of investors.
Recently, the Wall Street veteran trader Rekt, using trend analysis, presents the 8 years of the bitcoin market cycle, and share their views.
White also gives a summary of the views of Rekt.
1, bitcoin and traditional investment market, dominated by the market cycle, in line with market cycle. 2, the market is in the fourth callback. The average depth of 3, bitcoin history callback 84% to about 86%, the maximum depth of 93%. From the beginning of December 2017 4, the fourth round of bear market, has been 52 weeks, so far, bitcoin has a 84.5% correction. 5, according to the analysis of historical experience, bitcoin callback index in 1400-2800 dollars.
First, in line with the market cycle of bitcoin
The capital market life cycle is a cycle, no matter what kind of market, whether stocks, bonds, real estate, have the same features and the same stage of life, they will experience from growth to peak to the decline of the process, the end of a cycle, another cycle will follow up.
As with the traditional market, the money market also dominate the encryption by the market cycle.
Why bitcoin conforms to the market cycle?
First of all, from that we can see is the price fluctuation. Most importantly, each cycle is in the human’s emotion under control, its uncertainty and doubt, greed and excitement, to the despair and fear, and finally lost to escape. Every time, the emotional cycle will be repeated.
We review the history and trend of bitcoin, you can easily find this point.
The following is the Rekt12 12 tweets: Since 2011, the continued bitcoin rising and falling trend of the time.
Through these data, Iniesta found an interesting feature: a few of the duration of the bull market, bear market will better than the last longer.
This 8 years, bitcoin the longest bear market lasted 58 weeks, during this period, bitcoin callback (down) 86%.
From the highest point of $20000 in December 2017 fell so far, bitcoin has a 84.5% correction, we can see that the current bitcoin is at an average depth of fourth times the callback.
Let’s see bitcoin in the previous 4 big bull market gains.
In a bull market, bitcoin gained 11000% of the increase, for example, if we give a historical drama, we can get 1 yuan of money to earn 11000 yuan.
But in fact, history is seldom the exponential growth, In fact, the overall trend of bitcoin is in line with market rules, So, we can also use the price behavior of history to predict the future trend.
Two, the use of market cycle data to predict future trends
So, people tend to use historical data to infer the market trend, but any market cycles are not simple copy and paste.
Each market cycle will be accompanied by many factors, so each market cycle proceeds from the different, the depth of the callback will vary.
We look at 3 times over the history of the callback, you can calculate the bear market bitcoin fell to what depth.
1, if bitcoin callback 86%… In the current market cycle, bitcoin has callback 84.5%, then the 86% callback means that, compared to the highest point of the $20000, bitcoin will back to about $2800, than the current price fell by about 13%, the rise time is close to. 2, if bitcoin callback 93%… Bitcoin will callback to about $1400, than the current price fell by about 57%.
So, in the current market cycle, the range can be inferred from the bottom of the bitcoin 1400-2800 million dollars.
Third, I fear greed
See here, is not to feel at ease a lot?
Through the data analysis of bitcoin market cycle, can make us more in-depth understanding of the price and trend.
However, all support the market cycle, is a human emotion, the same market cycle and human emotion circulation way.
From fear to greed, from greed to fear.
Warren Buffett once said: “all I fear, greed. People greedy, I fear”.
It is fear, do you know?