The orange book (ID:chengpishu), the author: Ben Davidow, compiled: orangefans, the daily planet authorized forwarding.
On the night of the election, many Americans sitting at home watching TV news. While others turn off the TV, turn to open the Augur website, hoping to see some news of the election in the above. That night, the Augur point of the block chain prediction platform reached a new milepost of its own: Augur produced the first “sweepstakes” more than $one million market forecast, gambling is the theme of “the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, which party will win the victory.
This Duyue two sides of the amount of shares, stakes between two results to swing back and forth, along with the voting results more clear, more and more small price changes, until the last Democrat to win.
But at this time, is a dramatic scene……
A buyer to buy Augur on the thousands of dollars worth of money, in charge of the Republican side, and so on… What…? When the Democrats have to win, why would anyone to bet a Republican?
One explanation, there are many possible explanations, points out that the bet in the presence of bug. This bet is called “a political party which will be in the 2018 midterm elections after the control of the house?” – there is no specific instructions, “after the election, when it is””. The democratic party until the end date about gambling set before the actual control of Congress, the bet will expire on december.
This text on the loopholes, not a big problem in the center of the market forecast, the central mechanism has the right to interpret. But in the forecast to the center of the platform, this small problem may lead to disputes about gambling, delay the decision, at least in theory, a serious dispute may let the market “invalid”. But some people worry that this small problem of boring arguments, function and use will damage Augur.
But if the dispute is actually a good thing? If a protracted dispute, or even a fork, is a good thing for Augur?
In the “anti vulnerability”, Taleb studied when faced with uncertainty, pressure and confusion when something dies, some things will grow. The latter has anti vulnerability.
Think of the hydra. When someone cut off its head, it will become the two head. “Hurt” love hydra. Something resilient can withstand the pressure and impact; the anti fragile thing will benefit from.
The best encryption network vulnerability is anti biological. The encryption network more successful, attracting more malicious attackers honeypot. But this attack honeypot more power, the protection of stakeholders of the network is also bigger. No one person or party has the power to protect the encryption network, the fact that make everyone aware of the common responsibility, because each people who have token, with the success of the network encryption results do bind the interests of. In Augur, when a malicious attacker deliberately put money in the wrong belief, this behavior will only incite more good people to buy more money to gamble, competing with one another and correct belief.
There is another anti encryption network vulnerability method: bifurcation. In the best case, the bifurcation is an evolutionary force, it can continuously carry out experiments, in order to promote the survival of the fittest. As Fred Ehrsam said,
Mutation like biological organisms DNA allowed by natural selection through evolution, let us live in the strongest forked version of the case can be done in parallel multiple experiments.
Augur has its own version of “bifurcation”. If the community in a number of controversies, still unable to market results agree, then it will be split into multiple versions. In each of the different versions of the “universe”, Augur will have a token account, and this is an independent branch of books — what happened to record different results, such as a democratic party was eventually determined to win control of the house, the other one is the market is regarded as invalid.
The DAO hacker and subsequent events can be said only to strengthen the bifurcation, the etheric Fang and the community. Although the etheric Fang and Augur are two completely different communities, but because of the community if the Augur dispute caused by the final bifurcation, bifurcation will have similar before it and etheric Fang, are different between the ideal VS. purism: pragmatism. The etheric Fang purists do not want to return to The DAO stolen money, but purists don’t love because some words may be invalid market vulnerabilities.
However, as in the encryption economic mechanism of well-designed, pragmatism and bias of production will tend to be better than the purists. Why? Because the encrypted network has very important encryption of token assets, monetary value of its utility in proportion to rise, will naturally make the choice of production holders tend to bias in favor of pragmatism, not purists. In other words, they will choose the actual development path can make token become more useful, because people want to rise in the value of the token.
In the case of Augur, “useful” may mean “prediction”. You want to predict good market forecast things… But if the sacrifice accuracy will actually predict long-term impact?
If in this case, we can not solve these problems, it will mean the Augur will be divided into two universe, a Democratic victory, another is the market is considered to be “invalid” or Republican prevailed. Perhaps two of the universe and its corresponding token for the use of different scenes, or for different users, are valuable. But I think the more likely scenario is that a universe may thrive, another will be forgotten.
Therefore, although the Augur as a whole may be anti fragile, but this does not mean that each of its forked versions are available anti vulnerability. As Taleb wrote,
Some components within the system may need to be vulnerable, so in order to make the system have anti vulnerability.
Augur long dispute can achieve the following goals:
Let more people buy and invest in Augur token, and the market should be how to solve the hot debate.
Create and describe the bet “standards encourage better market.
A further incentive for Augur developers to accelerate the improvement of the dispute resolution process, they are working on things.
If in the unlikely case of bifurcation, can make different experiments, observe what kind of version will be more efficient, with productivity, and then test the bifurcation process.