See the deep drop from the top to the bottom of the digital currency, can be said to have winter ring.
The first week | financial reporter: Aileen
“The recent bitcoin cash (BCH) hard currency split ring day good sad. Before is a rose is a wind sways grass, now there is news on the fall, the banker in the shipment, and no one dared to admission, currency price only fell.” A senior game player of the first domestic bitcoin financial journalists.
2018 years, the overall poor performance of emerging markets. Today, good scenery independence in the American market also began to fall down. U.S. stocks have recently dropped the annual increase, oil price is 1 months fell nearly two, resulting in numerous hedge fund explosion. When this round of expansion period close end, from stocks, crude oil, and then to bitcoin, pessimism all risky assets are beginning to spread.
From late November, coins fell open – circle bitcoin, bitcoin cash (BCH), etheric coins and coin Wright coins all star. In November 20th, bitcoin fell below $4300, a decline of nearly 20% in 24 hours. A week earlier, bitcoin price is still around $6500, 7 months when the currency price is up nearly $8400.
“In the near term, currency prices will continue to fall, big in coin, bitcoin may be dropped to around $3000.” A large domestic trading platform, said the person in charge of the first financial reporter, “copycat money trapped, but investors seem to be” in the long-term is not bitcoin disappointed, as to what time to see the trend of the global economy rebound. 2020 years the number of bitcoins will be halved, then there may be a new cycle.”
Hard currency circle bearish sentiment intensified bifurcation
The main trigger factor, bitcoin fell is hard in the original bifurcation, financial market sentiment is pessimistic situation, which also exacerbated the sell-off effect.
The “hard fork” refers to the bitcoin cash (BCH) “hard bifurcation”. The BCH is intended as a bifurcation currency bitcoin, aims to solve the problem of low efficiency of transaction bitcoin block caused by small capacity. In simple terms, the “hard fork” can be understood as meaning — a consensus on the original technology of digital currency differences, and points out a new chain in the chain, resulting in a new currency, the formation of similar branches.
It is reported that the leadership is hard fought two bifurcation Steven Australian Craig Wright and bit CEO, Wu Jihan. After a few days of BCH hegemony after the game, hard to complete a bifurcation, Wu Jihan win temporarily.
However, in order to support the bifurcation hard war, both consume a lot of its work force, causing periodic stress fluctuation. The profit of the bitcoin miners by cutting force is to dig BCH, both sides need to sell the BTC Exhibition for dollars, that is to increase pay extra money.
“This leads to the hard bit, the bifurcation control of a large part to support the ABC, resulting in bitcoin global hashrate fell by nearly 48%, which also triggered bitcoin prices fell.” The exchange told reporters. In late November 15th 9 at the beginning of the war, Craig Steven Wright Bitcoin SV camp to dig out the first three blocks, led by Bitcoin ABC, a bit out of fourth blocks began to counterattack. At this time, a bit, its first big pool BTC.com has been part of the customer to switch is support ABC.
In addition, some of the recent trading platform scandal has also exacerbated the panic. The senior currency trading ring told reporters that, in the BCH bifurcation on the eve of the OKEx trading platform will be worth $135 million the value of BCH in terms of the futures contract in advance of delivery without warning case. Because the compulsory early settlement of its bitcoin cash contract, this behavior makes many traders suffered huge losses, and early delivery behavior appears only in OKEx.
In addition, in November 15th, OKEx trading system failure, some users can not normally order. Within two hours, the market volatility has led to $400 million on the platform of OKEx explosion. Some people think that if a system failure will be unable to trade, but this is part of a single transaction can be completed, so it also raises the question, there are investors that OKEx got a lot of interest in the market manipulation in two.
The short-term currency circle.
Over the medium term, currency circles believe that currency price rebound is still very difficult, especially in the background of global economic down under.
“Recent signs, currency circle chiefs are in frequent shipments, by selling spot or futures operation, which also led to the spread of pessimism.” The responsible person told reporters that the exchange.
By the end of 2017, bitcoin prices topped $20 thousand, the global investment chiefs be struck dumb. In early 2010, a $25. But it takes 10 thousand bitcoins, equivalent to a bitcoin value of 0.25 cents. Less than eight years, bitcoin soared nearly 4 million times. However, as the current year, bitcoin prices have been cut”. Bitcoin crash has caused a series of chain reaction: Taking the coins, and other currencies have plummeted reboxetine currency, the currency market value not only encrypted with the beginning of the year to $200 billion, $850 billion is far away.
It is worth noting that the main GPU manufacturer NVIDIA (NVIDIA) recently, the stock price plummeted, the market value evaporate over $20 billion. In addition, bitcoin mining needs to consume a large amount of computing power, bitcoin prices have tumbled more than its cost breakdown, resulting in income is unable to make up electricity and other mandatory spending, the media had also reported that this makes some loss of the machine can only be on sale, according to a report a year ago the price of up to twenty-one thousand units mills, second-hand sale price of only 1000 yuan.
The number of coins circles of first financial reporters, bitcoin prices may fall to $3000. When may reverse, etc. bitcoin will enter a number in half cycle. Will be a turning point in the price of bitcoin may 2020 years 5 months.
From a long-term point of view, after the number of each bitcoin half will usher in the next rise, analysts have predicted that bitcoin prices will peak in the month of 8 2023. The design principle of bitcoin, each miner dug a block at the beginning of 50 bitcoin, every 210 thousand blocks automatically halved, 4 years time, the final total bitcoin stability in 21 million. Therefore, bitcoin is a currency deflation.
In addition, the market is also concerned about the Wall Street, can drive the next wave of digital currency transactions. In October, the United States announced the establishment of information management giant Fidelity Investments called fidelity digital asset service (Fidelity Digital Asset Services) of the company, the future will be for the hedge funds, family offices and market intermediary organizations to provide digital assets managed and trade execution services. Goldman and other agencies also consider providing hosting services for digital currency fund. However, the current mainstream institutions still cautious.
The global risk sentiment declined
It is worth noting that the jump ring currency itself, the global risk assets seems to be spared.
In the commodity market since October, oil prices fell nearly 20%; the stock market, the S & P 500 index fell for 6 consecutive weeks, from 2900 points to 2600 points nearby, wiped out the annual increase; in addition, earlier in the low interest rate environment market Crazy Chase income, and the recent high yield debt market also suffered a setback; the U.S. real estate market some also start flashing risk signal, a widely tracked refinancing index has fallen to its lowest level in 2001 to the. Real estate related stocks fell nearly 35% compared to January highs, only since September 1st fell nearly 20%.
In October 8th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, IMF is expected in 2018 and 2019 global economic growth of 3.7%, compared with 7 month down 0.2 percentage points. The IMF warned that “the clouds are emerging, the economic growth is not expected so balanced growth was affected by the increased likelihood of further shocks.
Recently, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently tone significant shift, he said, the U.S. housing market slowdown, with tax cuts and increased fiscal spending as the main form of fiscal stimulus may gradually fade from next year, the Fed will continue to monitor the financial situation, we have to think about how much can raise interest rates, and the amplitude and rhythm of interest rate.”
“If the United States stock market began weakening, Asia will have a chance. Asian cycle later than the United States, the United States, even if the end of monetary tightening to easing stimulus, the weaker dollar, capital will have the opportunity to once again return in emerging markets.” Standard Chartered (China) wealth management investment strategy director Wang Xinjie told the first financial reporter. But note that, prior to this, the Fed rate hike is still “stage, increase the volatility of the market, the Asia Pacific stock market as a whole is difficult to attract significant capital inflows, the configuration to increase some defensive assets than in the past, the dollar short debt, emerging market dollar debt, even some gold to hedge the risk of fluctuations.”
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