Editor’s note: This article is from Mars Finance (ID:hxcj24h), author: Cheng Zhipeng, the daily planet Odaily authorized reprint.
The recent currency mainstream led by BTC showed slight shocks. From the beginning of February 8th, BTC prices move up sharply, from $3300 at the time interval began to rise, to the highest in February 23rd rose to $4202, with the decapitation guillotine type of fall, ending the upward trend. After three weeks of continuous time, BTC prices hovering between $3650-3950.
The BTC market makes the market strong wait-and-see attitude of indifference, but in February the mainstream currency trading volume, BTC still have the opportunity to rise, even in the Dallas City market, the reason has been verified in the history of the market. While other mainstream coins in the fundamentals are not optimistic about the situation, still have the opportunity to follow up bitcoin.
2 month BTC trading volume reached the highest in a year, BTC trading in the past 30 days in the trading volume of nearly 2063.7 billion dollars. The increase in trading volume is due in mid February when BTC prices rose to $4000, then in sideways in fall. BTC trading volume growth of 34%.
From the market performance, BTC largest price increase of only 25%, while the turnover of $200 billion, with a substantial increase in turnover, and is trading all digital currency in the greatest amount, or seems to be relatively weak. But from another point of view this is a good thing for BTC.
BTC was the result of a sharp increase in volume and price without a corresponding rise sharply is that many traditional investment institutions to form a replacement chip in effect of being involved in the BTC process, so the BTC trading volume increased 34% but did not form a rapid rise in prices.
Here you need to explain in detail the two points: first, how to determine BTC there are many agencies involved? Second, why not immediately pulled the institutions involved in the BTC?
According to Coindesk data, in 2018 the blockchain venture capital investment grew 257%, the total amount of $3 billion 100 million.
Digital currency market as a whole in 2018 years is a big bear market, especially in the currency, OKEX, fire currency 3 Chinese founder head exchange, 99% new project breaks and fell sharply, even a lot of Project Zero situation. But did not return by sweeping many institutions investment, more is the market of the two investment institutions and leek harvest, there are many projects not even on the exchange, so the investment funds is still in the pending influence, market force.
In addition, by the end of 2018, the NASDAQ in 2019 first confirm the launch of BTC futures for half a year, this event in the long-term impact on the BTC market of the larger. Intercontinental Exchange digital asset exchange launched Bakkt completed $182 million 500 thousand financing, the exchange settlement model has great influence on the spot market, if the line of liquidity on BTC has certain influence. JP Morgan Morgan recently issued coins, Facebook may send money rumors, also attracted market attention to digital currency, so the number of traditional financial institutions to enter the bitcoin increase.
A no action began to move up why organizations involved in BTC, but in a market shock whipsaw, one reason is that BTC chips are more dispersed, institutions need long time after the intervention of brewing. The more important reason, is not the best time to move.
From the historical point of view the market every BTC production by half a year’s time, will open a price upward cycle. Specifically, in November 2012, the first BTC production by half quantity BTC, each block produced by 25, and in November 2011, BTC prices have bottomed out, open a wave pulled up. BTC in the 7 months to 2016 years BTC the two times that number of BTC production by half, each block produced by 12.5, and in the 8 month BTC 2015 years prices have bottomed out.
History has proved that as long as it entered the foreplay, BTC will rise!
According to the history of the interpretation of the market, the next block BTC generated at the time of 2020 years 5 months, 4 months is expected in 2019 years to the end of the month between 5, BTC prices will once again open a wave pulled out, would be a good time to start.
ETH trading $104 billion 460 million worth of etheric Fang in the past 30 days, the monthly trading activity reached a high in 2018. ETH trading volume growth of 34.40%.
Watch the performance from the previous ETH market, the largest increase throughout February 70%, while the ETH increase in turnover than bitcoin is not too much higher, to observe the ETH market trend then on this basis, a volume and price divergence means. The current prices rose sharply, while the volume failed to match.
The biggest problem facing the ETH, is the largest application scenarios for the ICO, and in the 2018 bear market objective announced the failure of ICO this model, but because of the problems Caton, in the field of DAPP compared to EOS and wave field and other public chain competitiveness is weak, so the limited space of value investment.
However, the company released from digital assets on New York Delphi Digital report, ETH BTC has reached 1.5 in 90 days compared to the beta coefficient, a recent period of time, ETH is also generally follow bitcoin price trends. In most of the time in the past 18 months, the volatility in the prices of ETH BTC is bigger than BTC when prices rise. However, beta ETH rose began to increase. This may occur if the market when the market rebound, the rebound rate may exceed BTC ETH.
Such speculation is not unreasonable, when the market had an overall increase, ETH increase was significantly higher than that of BTC. In short, although the commercial value of ETH is more and more low, but does not affect the following BTC prices fell when rising higher. Of course, may also fall more fierce.
In February, EOS for fifth consecutive months to become the fourth most traded currency encryption. The transaction value of 332.2 billion EOS in the past 30 days, trading activity growth 54.75%. February is EOS since May 2018 the most powerful trading month.
EOS previous rally is also very strong, 2.1 from the lowest to the highest of 4.5 or more than 120%. From the fundamental point of view, although more than EOS square Ethernet application space, but also a great short board, that is DAPP developers use EOS high cost problem. There are a lot of industry chain chain block into the public project in 2018, in 2019 will slowly start to the main line, as they gradually began to expand the market, or EOS if not achievements are better on the cost issue, the future competition will become increasingly weak.
From the view of market changes, the price of EOS is also similar with BTC, but the beta coefficient seems to have to be higher than BTC, so EOS might follow from the basic BTC spike.
LTC is the February trading volume of fifth large encryption assets, $32 billion 850 million worth of Wright currency trading. LTC volume growth of 93.58%, since the 2018 in the first quarter of the most powerful trading month.
LTC turnover increased sharply in February, compared to other mainstream currency this range is quite substantial, it is worth focusing on.
In fact, LTC is a leader in the 2 month digital currency market as a whole rose, rose led by LTC pulled up the entire market. The reason lies in the LTC rose a blog post in February 7th, the non-profit organization Wright currency foundation said is negotiating with the Beam project developers focus on privacy, to provide extended block Wright currency network. Will Wright currency upgrade for privacy coins.
In addition, Wright currency is expected to halve in August 2019 yield. The block rewards will be reduced from 25LTC to 12.5LTC. Along with the rising cost of production by half, mining, and supply chips to reduce the rate of. A decrease in supply or will lead to price increases, so the return of funds choose to join the Wright currency, thus stimulate the rise.
The reason is to directly stimulate the direction of privacy currency Wright currency rise, and the future production is expected to have some help for rising prices, but relatively weak. LTC in the subsequent rally, although the trend of convergence of BTC, but shortly after the market hit a new high, trend is stronger.
In such a situation, and had LTC significant increase in trading volume has great relationship. As in our analysis of BTC, BTC has emphasized the agencies involved in the view, while the LTC and BTC properties are similar, but the market is relatively light, after the degree of concern is not high. If the stock market as an analogy, LTC belongs to second-line blue chips, easy access to the institutions of all ages, so the future of LTC and continuous suction gold opportunity.
BNB within a year in the top 20, trading volume in February was $2 billion 840 million. Although the transaction volume is not before, but as a platform for currency BNB recently very worthy of attention, the reason is that the currency trading mode for the ANN so IEO project to raise funds, achieved great success. IEO (Initial Exchange Offerings) is the core issue in exchange for tokens, tokens ICO to skip this step, direct exchange line. The IEO model makes the on-line exchange and benefit of the project need to ensure that every time the exchange bound, the project must be high quality and reliable, otherwise its platform will be a huge impact on the price of money.
An IEO model is currently in the currency market performance is very successful, many exchanges would like to imitate, but the IEO mode for exchange if the biggest weakness is the launch of the project collapsed cut chives, then cook again. Some exchange itself may not have malicious to cut chives, but due to the launch of contracts to attract a large number of speculative traders, increase the market instability, so the IEO model is good, but no copy of the condition of user groups. And an open contract after the currency business, condensed users are mostly value bullish, trading behavior is more robust, so to be able to support an IEO currency development mode, has brought great competitive advantage. BNB has a huge growth potential, it is worth continuing concern.
Inventory of the five major currency possible changes in future market, provide the most direct support for the transaction may not be immediate. The interpretation of which can not allow investors to guess what the market is up or down in a short period of time. More importantly, if the market logic can gradually clear, clear direction, determine the value of the growth in the longer period of time, the short-term market changes no longer on investor psychology and behavior impact. If the future to continue to see more, can have a reasonable reason.