The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

Editor’s note: This article from the BitMEX, the BitMEX research team, the daily planet Odaily authorized reprint.

Abstract: we note that the distribution of random numbers in the region’s bitcoin does not seem to be random, the gap can not be explained, the random number in the gap appears less. Then we speculate why this is the case, and provide a description of this phenomenon chart. Although in our opinion, interpretation of the starting point is good, but it is still a mystery.

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

Overview and recent tweets

Bitcoin random number is a part of the district’s miners, use it to provide entropy, as part of a process that meets the requirements of the difficulty to find the hash. Although it will depend on how to configure the mining software and hardware, but the distribution of the random numerical theory should be random. In 2009, when the Satoshi is considered to be an important miner, random numbers follow a specific pattern.

In January 4, 2019, @100trillionUSD posted a picture on twitter, explains the distribution of the random value of bitcoin. It seems that, from mid 2010 to early 2016, the random number is random, after the appearance of a mysterious region of four random number reduced.

The weird #bitcoin nonce pattern is still there at block 556995…

I would expect nonces to be totally random, like block 100000-400000. But ever since block 400000 there are 4 areas with less nonces. Of course before block it was Satoshi playing around. pic.twitter.com/XsIRhDXXAq 100000

PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 4, 2019

A few days later, in January 7, 2019, @khannib Monero seems to have noticed the unusual distribution of random numbers. Monero bifurcation may prevent the use of ASIC, seems to make distribution again randomization, which may indicate that this model can lead to ASIC.

Interesting patterns emerge when looking at $XMRnonces. Red overlay is mining difficulty.

Can you spot the ASICs?

H/T @100trillionUSD who did the same for BTC pic.twitter.com/s23WrdTIY0

Antoine Le Calvez (@khannib) January 7, 2019

1 2019 23, TokenAnalyst by the random value of mine pool coloring, explores the distribution patterns of bitcoin random values.

Time of each block vs nonce. Values coloured by top-10 most active mining pools (by number of blocks mined since Jan Dashed-blue vertical lines 2016). Are block rewards halving. Red line is log difficulty. As you can see is now dominated by – mining a few large pools. pic.twitter.com/wvgtdJmaHA

TokenAnalyst (@thetokenanalyst) January 23, 2019

From another TokenAnalyst tweets suggesting that Antpool is a major cause of accidental random numerical distribution, while Bitfury and Slushpool with the random value of “blank interval” may not produce effect.

The random number distribution of scatter NEW

We replicated the above analysis, the scatter similar figure (from 2018); trying to in-depth understanding of the problem.

We also provide Antpool, BTC.com, F2Pool, Slushpool and Bitfury made the single scatter diagram. These charts seem to be consistent with the data of TokenAnalyst, the “blank zone” for Antpool, Slushpool and Bitfury is more visible than. Although Slushpool, the blank interval is still visible, but relatively weak. Bitfury could not find enough for people to observe clearly the block pattern. Statistical analysis may be useful, but with the human brain to interpret these scatterplots may function with some form of the same statistics.

Bitcoin random numerical distribution – all random value (since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(data source: BitMEX)

Bitcoin random numerical distribution – Antpool (since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(data source: BitMEX)

Bitcoin random numerical distribution – BTC.com (since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(data source: BitMEX)

Bitcoin random numerical distribution – F2Pool (since 2018 years)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(source: BitMEX)

Bitcoin random numerical distribution – Slush (since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(source: BitMEX)

Bitcoin random numerical distribution – Bitfury (since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(source: BitMEX)

Bitcoin cash ABC

Bitcoin cash ABC also has a random distribution pattern with the same numerical bitcoin.

Bitcoin cash ABC – (random assignment since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(source: BitMEX)

AsicBoost

The recessive AsicBoost may be one of the causes of this model or its cause. Many people speculated that at the start of the recessive AsicBoost algorithm, this model began to appear; and this model could be a coincidence in the implementation of the implicit AsicBoost, the need for random number manipulation. However, when people think that 2018 has stopped using the recessive AsicBoost in bitcoin, this pattern continues. But there may be hidden, although AsicBoost itself is disabled, but the firmware coincidence still exists.

In the following chart, we observed the distribution of random numbers using the dominant AsicBoost mining block. Similarly, the pattern is still visible, but is weak. This may indicate that the independent pattern and recessive AsicBoost, but it is far from conclusive.

Bitcoin random numerical distributions of dominant AsicBoost block (since 2018)

 The wisdom of Nakamoto So: bitcoin random number model is still a mystery

(source: BitMEX)

conclusion

At present, the distribution of random numbers is unusual in the bitcoin is still a mystery. The community may wish to further study this problem, more and more detailed analysis, such as check pool software and ASIC. We suspect that this is only an abnormal phenomenon with a benign cause of meaningless; but such a mystery in the bitcoin, may attract some analysts’ interest.

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