Source: financial website
Wen Yang Wang: Wang Shuyu
11 11 19 April to June 25 bitcoin prices fell, weekly decline of nearly 35%, lows below $4000. In fact, bitcoin since 2017 crazy break up $20000, then started to enter the rapid downward trend shock, as of April 25 11 fell more than 80%.
The bitcoin crash and why? How should the block chain technology, is the coexistence of bubble collapse or value? Crypto currency future prospects?
One Analysis of bitcoin fell reasons: blockchain foam, BCH bifurcation, tighter policy
As shown in Figure 1, the factors affecting the price of bitcoin supply and demand structure, including psychological factors, macroeconomic factors, market structure, asset allocation five. Among them, the supply and demand structure, psychological factors, macroeconomic factors bitcoin price is more direct and important.
Review from November 19th to November 25th bitcoin fell, is caused by macro factors, psychological factors and demand caused by a decline in confidence. Specific reasons are the following three aspects:
Block chain project bubble continues to hit market confidence. Block chain current infrastructure is still not perfect, the market chaos block chain project is uneven. Part of the project “chain wrapped” coat, actually took investors’ money to do the work of currency speculation. Or to issue a so-called “virtual currency” and “digital assets” to absorb funds, against the public interests. These projects bubble collapse, resulting in the continual loss of market confidence.
BCH bifurcation is hard war caused by market fluctuations. “Hard fork” to modify the bitcoin block data structure (i.e. “consensus” content), the new data node is not verified to accept the old data nodes, thus forming different types of nodes in the mining situation.
11 15, BCH (bitcoin cash) hard branch, led by Wu Jihan BCH ABC in Australia and the Cong led by BCH SV has been competing for sovereign status. The impact on the market is caused, on the one hand, the respective mining miners after bifurcation hard currency support, community disruption will affect the chain block to the center of the characteristics and the confidence of investors; on the other hand, investors worried that the bitcoin currency would be diluted existing after the bifurcation, and sell BCH, BCH prices also affect bitcoin the market (Figure 2).
Encryption of tighter monetary policy triggered panic in the market. In November 16th, the Commission issued the “digital assets of securities issuance and trading statement”, announced the punishment on the two ICO projects. In fact, ICO (the first currency) regulation, many countries have already issued related policies, most countries hold strict regulatory attitude (Table 1). In addition, in November 20th the United States Department of justice on December 2017 opened bitcoin soared on suspicion of market manipulation.
Two The prospect of future development and value chain: the coexistence of foam block
Block chain as the underlying technology of bitcoin, from the village on 2008 in the “bitcoin: the electronic cash system” a point of the proposed. With the American R3 company founded in 2014 and 2015 the Linux foundation Hyperledger project launched, block chain in the investment market attention gradually. So far, ten years, although the application block chain involves many fields, but its operation is small, and the real economy is not high. This is mainly due to the block chain in terms of its performance there are still many pain points.
The main point is the pain, the physical properties of the block chain is limited, difficult to break the paradox of three yuan. First of all, because of the “design center”, block information check work for a long time, the public physical chain performance is not high. According to relevant data, bitcoin transactions per second in support of the largest number of 6, while the Visa support transactions amounted to 1600 pens per second. Secondly, there is problem of “three yuan paradox” Application Based on block chain, namely block chain system cannot be realized at the same time to the intermediary, safety, high efficiency “of these three features. In the core positioning block maintenance chain design “to intermediary”, safety and efficiency at the same time cannot be reached, become a big obstacle block chain is applied to specific transaction scenario or the real economy. And in the “center” of the specific implementation logic also is still a problem.
Of course, the physical properties of the limit does not mean nothing for the real scene block chain technology. At present, achieved good results in block chain have been applied in the following two aspects:
A distributed database. This kind of scenario does not involve property rights, only play a block chain sharing account function, as to the center of the database, to solve the problem of information asymmetry between the information receiver and improve the efficiency of information stored in the. Specific applications such as people’s Bank of Chinese digital currency developed asset securitization information disclosure platform based on block chain technology.
Second, the digital instrument platform. Based on the digital instrument platform block chain technology, Token (“token” that performs some operation rights object) can serve as internal settlement tools in the supply chain, so as to help banks and trade financing enterprises significantly reduce costs, improve the capital turnover rate. Such as the people’s Bank of China digital ticket trading platform block chain technology has been launched in early 2018 and based on the successful operation.
To sum up the experience of the past few years, encryption currency and the blockchain “irrational exuberance”, the overall mood of the investment market becomes calm down. Based on value and risk assessment of the project in the block chain in the process of gradual improvement. The development of the block chain in the future, one needs to have a further breakthrough in its physical properties; on the other hand, the product design chain block technology based on the entity oriented economy design and practical application needs more landing. Only through the “blockchain gimmick to attract traffic, its profits can’t last.