With bitcoin to fall into the abyss, is human greed

Reprinted from 100 Author: Black novelist laugh

Tulips originated in Asia Minor, in the 16 century in europe. Since the first European tulip garden tulip cultivation is very scarce, limited volume, so the price is very expensive, often as the wealth of the noble, a scenery without.

In Western Europe after the incoming power in Holland, tulip bulb to be part of speculative hoarding, and gradually transformed into a speculative commodity. Look at the price of tulip bulbs in higher Holland fry flowers, almost into madness. People sell information, crazy lending, only a share in the tulip craze with vigour and vitality.

At the beginning of 1637, the price per plant quality varieties of tulip has exceeded 6000 Holland shield, is more than 40 times the average annual income of ordinary dutch. At first, people look forward to buy the “high quality” can be a variety of unusual bulbous flowers. But more close to the breeding season, more and more people began to wonder: “lots of money to buy flowers size, really can do valuable tulips in the next round of growth cycle?” Suspected with panic, panic with selling. Then in February of that year, selling snowball spread, tulip prices plummeted. In less than 10 days, a tulip prices fell nine. The Holland government had to lock the tulip market speculation. Since the tulip price fell slowly, eventually with the popularity of the plantation and completely out of financial attributes, reduced to ordinary flowers. The history of the first available financial speculation storm announced a complete end.

There is nothing new under the sun. Since the end of last year’s highs, bitcoin a shrink, the current price decline is gratifying, has shrunk by 80%. Once everywhere can mining, worthless currency scene, instantly become as trassient as a fleeting cloud. “Blockchain three bloody words more and more like the pronoun” speculators “or even” fraud “, the programmer resume even will be regarded as occupation stain. Bitcoin naturally became the talk of people at leisure.

The review of currency speculation, everyone full mining time, seems to be 2016, 2017 this year. Then bitcoin soared, with the mining industry (refers to a method based on computer is to get bitcoins) profits. In the ordinary small yards desperate to catch the learning algorithm, machine learning in the spring, a lot of “foresight” and “industry heavyweights” has waved his hand: “the algorithm is finished, the blockchain will dominate our future!” Even many people began playing copycat coins, attracted waves of Chinese chive.

The author itself also has some superficial understanding of block chain technology. The technology itself is a great attempt. As we know, the core concept of the blockchain is “to the center”, and the distributed computing system is the concept of the same strain, the database node to the center of the Internet, in addition to the special encryption methods to ensure information security can not be tampered with, the formation of a set of distributed storage and computing system. I think this idea is most suitable for use in the construction of information system of government endorsement, such as official information, government information transparency and so on assets. It is used for the transaction, the government must also have a strong platform, did not have the legal effect of feasible. Otherwise, a technical background, but let the private capital wantonly speculation, after all just a few people cut leek carnival.

How similar bitcoin and tulip. The book value of the two, far exceeds the actual cost of production. Some people say that the tulip luxury, planting is not easy. But more and more people, the price will eventually decline in the expected, and to the “sea coachman” skill, open up domestic and Asia “tulip trade” road and all possible. Therefore, the short-term profits of investment, in essence is the flower drum pass delusion shot in the bottom second best, turned out to be cut leek.

So it is no doubt bitcoin. Although I am the specific operation of the mining process is not understood, but in essence, bitcoin mining operation is the consumption of computer power, and power. But in the foreseeable future, Moore’s law is still in force, then a force will continue to enhance. With the development of new energy, electricity prices are expected in the fall. Bitcoin mining, will only dig more cheap. Even in the short term, mining has a certain cost, I can still conclude that, compared to the cost of 2016, and in 2017 the price of bitcoin is a drop in the bucket. What is a bubble? Bitcoin has sent the foam on your face. And Holland small people identical 400 years ago, people’s bitcoin lever stud, 90% are in the 95% block of follow the trend of speculation, probably even the meaning of the chain can not see. It’s all because of greed.

Today, a huge bubble by greed and support, step by step into the abyss.

Finally, talk about some of their own thinking.

First of all, speculation itself is not recommended. But this is not to say that can not be speculative. There are some bubbles, looks like a bubble, touch like bubble, but if there is a national government platform, even if you participate in speculation, together blowing bubbles, is also something that is not a meat we eat.

Just like a house, a square meter house building cost up to only one, 2000, if considered a second tier city regional resources can be worth mentioning, line city house has three thousand four hundred fifty-six what appreciation space? My people think also know is a bubble. But the State encourages a down payment, lower loan interest rates, to mortgage lending, that is not the “buy” two words written in red on? That is a bubble, the country that you buy, encourage you to buy, you have the money and no room, the only buy. But some people in the country, blockade of property, 50% down payment, to raise the interest rate limit, the purchase of qualifications, limit the sale time, also that prices will never rise, ow to real, then don’t blame people cut the leek.

Secondly, any bubble has burst, not what things will never rise, whether tulips, coins, or stocks and Chinese housing. Or in the house as an example. Some people say that the purchase is to prevent prices rising, but change an angle to this, why not prevent the decline in house prices. As the tulip crash shortly after the Holland government locked the speculative trading in all forms, then the tulip bulbs although the price fell a lot, but much has not bottomed out, until more than 100 years after the tulip bubble eventually fall to the bottom, the price for the peak value of 0.005% – this is the typical time smooth foam. But the current housing market, especially first-tier cities housing market, but with the planned economy to the old wrist lock card price at a high level. Eventually the bubble is a bubble, will eventually be over time. (is also 100 years not to say, but the current prices overdraft two generations of purchasing power, waiting to be consumed in inflation is the most reliable method)

Finally, the sky will not fall. Stop the biggest enemy of human further run in the explosion of technology on the road, is the man himself. Greed can make mass madness. Mad people, will eventually lose reason.

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