Zhang Shousheng: guiding investment with scientific thinking

 Zhang Shousheng: guiding investment with scientific thinking

This article comes from: chain catcher (ID:iqklbs), author: Zhang Shousheng, the Star daily is authorized to forward.

In December 6th, according to the first line of the Tencent, it was confirmed from a number of sources that Professor Zhang Shousheng, a well-known Chinese scientist, died in December 1st and was only 55 years old. Zhang Shousheng is a lifelong professor in the Department of physics, Stanford University, academician of the National Academy of Sciences, academician of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a foreign academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In 2007, the “quantum spin Holzer effect” discovered by Professor Zhang was named one of the “ten major scientific breakthroughs in the world” by science.

In addition, Professor Zhang has maintained its attention to the area of the block chain. In 2013, it founded the capital of Danhua, which covered area chain, artificial intelligence, large data and other emerging technologies. In this period, ID:iqklbs, who shared a lecture with Professor Zhang, can better reflect Professor Zhang’s Thoughts on science and investment, which can also inspire us to recognize complex things like block chains. The article starts with ID:ibushouzhi.

01 deductive reasoning

In this era, I think that people who understand the nature of the knowledge system can seize countless opportunities, which is the Deductive Thinking that science gives us.

Our philosophy is to use scientific ideas for investment, to find simple and universal technology and products, and to let us see the connections between different fields, give different enterprises the synergy that they can’t see, and really grasp the source of the time.

There are two major directions in science, one is to break down the material of various forms to the most basic components; and the two is to use these basic components to construct a different state of material.

For example, a cup of water, assuming that there are 10 23 square water molecules in it, I can’t predict the movement of each molecule, like you let me accurately predict the trend of the stock market tomorrow. But we know that every molecule inside is doing a random Brown movement. When the molecules are enough, they produce a new rule under the principle of statistics.

This is a concept of portfolio – if only one company is invested, the success rate is obvious and difficult. But if you have a mix of portfolios, you can reasonably hedge the expected return and risk. When the portfolio is healthy enough, the random probability of a single investment will offset each other, making the overall probability of success higher.

However, we should also watch out for the capital bubble and observe the development of bubbles: some bubbles will dilate to a certain extent, some bubbles grow to a certain extent and will become a new sustainable phenomenon.

To analyze the bubble phenomenon, we can analyze the distribution according to the size and quantity of the foam, and the distribution is the exponential function or the reciprocal function. If it is an exponential function, it is shown that the bubble is a very concentrated large bubble, and the integral of the exponential function is limited, in which case the bubble is more likely to be disillusioned. If it is the reciprocal function, it is a long tail distribution, a certain large foam, and a lot of small bubbles. This integral is infinite and may be further developed to a stable state.

The bubble, which is composed of water molecules, says that when the temperature is close to the critical value of 100 degrees Celsius, the bubble distribution we see should be the long tail distribution. A little more, the water was made of steam, and there were countless small bubbles. Then the bubble became a new state of stability, and the water kept boiling at a temperature of 100 degrees.

The bubbles we see now include the innovation itself and the layout of the capital. If all are concentrated in a small number of fields, everyone is snatching short and fast projects, which is likely to be a bubble. If the future of the so-called bubble, a large number of projects in other fields, then this development is a stable development.

We continue to take the analogy of water molecules, and bubbles represent a new thing. Water molecules are thinning in bubbles. In liquid, water molecules are more dense, and the first new things are definitely thinning and surrounded by traditional things (liquids). So the bubble phenomenon is worth paying attention to, and it may be a new omen.

02 transformation is simple

The biggest problem is that the knowledge system is developing rapidly, the longer the tree grows, the longer the tree is, the more and more the human knowledge is more and more complex, but the problem is the knowledge of different branches and different fields, it is very difficult to communicate with each other, and the knowledge of the system is more and more deeply, but the knowledge of the cross domain is very little.

There is an ancient Chinese saying, “separated from the mountain”, which is the challenge and opportunity of our time. The rule of science is to go back to the origin, and once we get back to the root, or on a few important nodes, we can see the branches and leaves above.

For example, we have a “blackboard test” for investment, and let the founding team, under pressure, summarize and deduce the mathematical principles, formulas, and ideas that the company will use on the blackboard. It would be good to show a theoretical framework of logical and consistent logic.

Once, look at a AI medical diagnosis system project. The founder has said many big and fashionable words, “deep learning”, “Markov chain”, “convolution neural network”, “genetic algorithm” and so on, which are very professional. When asked to deduce the algorithm on the blackboard, it was found that he was only familiar with some nouns of AI technology. His medical diagnosis system is just a pre programmed routine expert question and answer system and has a AI name. These are far from enough for artificial intelligence investment.

The world is very complex, it is necessary to seize a breakthrough point and use the simplest solution to cope with a very complex world.

As the pursuit of poetry is to use two sentences to explain the complex feelings, science is also the pursuit of a simple formula to describe the nature of the thousands of phenomena, such as F=MA, E=MC2 is the most beautiful poetry of the description of nature.

In the period of the newspaper industry, Franklin often used a simple sentence to outline the complex situation of current affairs, and even wrote simple and clear advertising words, endowed the news business with the social function of the advertisement, and made the advertising revenue become one of the sources of the news media. So I often say that Franklin is the inventor of Twitter. If one can make every thing clear in 140 words, it is a very powerful ability.

In addition to the “blackboard test”, we also have the principle of “estimating the back of the envelope”, to the effect that any complex thing should be summed up, abstracted and estimated on the back of an envelope. Through these, the founders can roughly estimate their own projects, the magnitude and future capacity of the market, and know how fast, cheap, and even free to get a lot of high quality scene data.

We have invested in a AI project, and it uses an ingenious way to get data constantly – the close interaction between mobile phones and people, the time to get a lot of information, motion and location, and then build artificial intelligence models based on these data. This solves the problem of the lack of data at the start of a startup.

Abstracting the complex information, our brain produces a sense of beauty and pleasure. It is also an important ability of human evolution. If you can’t distinguish the face and the tiger’s face with simple features, the person can’t survive.

03 parallel transboundary

Many people think that science is in the lab all day long, but most of the time, the success of scientists often depends on the choice of scientists. This is the most exciting time of the brain and the most abundant thought, but few scientists can do it well. The great scientists, when nobody noticed this direction, took aim at the time.

Investment is also the same as the direction of scientific research, exactly the same, to find the areas of science and technology close.

This is like the quantum world, the quantum, the particle has the two iconicity of the wave particle, with two holes, it can cross two holes at the same time, one hundred percent parallel to do two things.

At Standford, physicists, chemists and mathematicians were arranged in different buildings, although they had not much communication at ordinary times, but there would be new collision spaces in their lives. I have a neighbor, the computer department teacher. When we two children play football, we start to talk.

He said he had a pain point now. When he changed his homework, the computer programs that students handed in came from three different operating systems. Some were Windows, some were Mac, some were Linux. He wondered if he could do three different operating systems in a computer, so he invented his technology, V&M (Vistual Machine), virtual machine.

I felt very good at that time, because I had the same problem. Then he invested his company, and later it became a very great company, because the whole cloud computing was based on the technology of the virtual machine, at the highest value of $48 billion.

This is produced by different analysis in different time scales. I later thought that it was not necessarily accidental, but also predictable. The first is to live in Standford, and these opportunities are often produced. And I do academic research and look around colleagues, and I will assess their imagination and future to determine which people really can become very great scientists, and which can not be the first.

In fact, in the field of scientific research, when it comes to a technical level, the professional skills are all equal. For example, do theoretical physics research, your ability to deduce better; do experimental physics research, your ability to operate the instrument is better. At a certain level, this great man has been a lot of hair.

But why can some people end up in the next floor? This decisive factor is in fact beyond the knowledge of physics, but it needs to have a taste. Because everyone is very close, they are all competing, there are ten roads in front of you, and then I choose the road, and you choose the other one. The final result is that only one person is successful, and often from a technical point of view, the last person who has succeeded is not necessarily so good, and his success is because he has chosen the right direction.

I was very fond of reading history since I was young, and reading history would give you a question – what can be left and nothing to stay. So that’s much more, and it may be a bit of a help to you at the end of the choice. Maybe these choices seem to be accidental, but it is actually a result of a long-term accumulation of knowledge.

The truly perfect world is the quantum world, which is a particle of quantum, and it can do one hundred percent parallel things in parallel, and the quantum world is parallel. I think life can also reach this level, I am 100% time in education, 100% time in research, 100% time in investment.

Just like my idol Franklin. As a scientist, a politician, a thinker, a entrepreneur, a politician, and as one of the drafters of the declaration of independence, many of the things he did seemed unrelated, and the essence of it was associated.

Investment technology inventions may open up a market that was never imagined before, and this is the magic of investment. In this way, investment and science are not violated. In a sense, scientific thinking has been guiding the theory of investment.

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